# What will Donald Trump say during Remarks to NCAA Collegiate National Champions

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 18 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmentionb
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:52.219Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 63¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-reve |
| Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) | 93¢ | +19pp | $941 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-fighting-oliga-kalshi-kxberniemention-26may03-trum |
| Dividend | 32¢ | −4pp | $606 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-divi |
| Delivery | 68¢ | ±0 | $353 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-deli |
| Tariff | 32¢ | +1pp | $342 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-tari |
| Hot Honey | 41¢ | −5pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-hot |
| Trump / President | 60¢ | ±0 | $295 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-during-next-nyc-mayor-kalshi-kxmamdanimention-26apr30-trum |
| DoorDash | 10¢ | ±0 | $278 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-door |
| Competition | 43¢ | +3pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-comp |
| Monopoly | 23¢ | −1pp | $108 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-mono |
| McChicken | 15¢ | +1pp | $87 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-mcch |
| Trump | 6¢ | +1pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-drake-say-during-iceman-trump-kalshi-kxdrakemention-26may15-trum |
| Happy Meal | 60¢ | −1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-happ |
| Buffalo | 10¢ | +1pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-buff |
| Big Arch | 94¢ | +2pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-big |
| Supply Chain | 67¢ | +1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-supp |
| Trump | 14¢ | +1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-walt-disney-company-say-during-their-kalshi-kxearningsmentiondis-26may06-trum |
| Loyalty | 85¢ | ±0 | $3 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-loya |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Revenue +28pp 41→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) +19pp 66→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Hot Honey +18pp 46→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Hot Honey −16pp 65→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · DoorDash +14pp 6→20¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmentionb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpmentionb
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.