# How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 18 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmentionduration
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:25.002Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 21% — 19pp spread
- 24h volume: $87K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 6¢ | +1pp | $33K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-jr-be-the-nominee-for-the-pres-kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-djtjr |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 84¢ | +7pp | $16K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-may-15-2026-b-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-may15 |
| China | 90¢ | ±0 | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jan-1-2027-ch-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-chi |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 5¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-august-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | ±0 | $5K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-donald-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-dtru |
| Yes | 79¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-im-kalshi-kxnewtariffs-26may-jun01 |
| Yes | 17¢ | −8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-be-above-400-fo-kalshi-kxvotehubtrumpupdown-26may07 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-nominee-for-the-preside-kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-djt |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 92¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jun-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-jun01 |
| Before May 8, 2026 | 5¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-may08 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 95¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jul-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-jul01 |
| Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton | 8¢ | ±0 | $509 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-and-ken-paxt-kalshi-kxtxrunoffendorse-26may26-djt-both |
| Before January 20, 2029 | 38¢ | ±0 | $371 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-january-20-2-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-jan2029 |
| 15s+ | 56¢ | +5pp | $327 | polymarket | /markets/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-when-they-m-polymarket-0xdbe51d73ec97dc8c38299b83d01a0bf4c4f4f882ff493da3ef6c4dc763a30282 |
| 10–15s | 21¢ | −1pp | $310 | polymarket | /markets/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-when-they-m-polymarket-0xcc25820f3f0e3a82ef8af107c547a25373f8798e7ef2776877fabd6da90c341b |
| No Handshake | 6¢ | −1pp | $242 | polymarket | /markets/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-when-they-m-polymarket-0xbdfaa0eee43e1e883f71dd83167ed43c2bf54844dc8953cc4afb99f242e8aa4d |
| 6–10s | 16¢ | +1pp | $165 | polymarket | /markets/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-when-they-m-polymarket-0xe33f8b9461b5ed188dab3c5cc43750e72c04d1f9570288b75132cd7866495f8f |
| 2–6s | 8¢ | +1pp | $139 | polymarket | /markets/how-long-will-trump-and-xi-shake-hands-when-they-m-polymarket-0x7200d6862cf624a0d0f8de09f4a783f779cabc6bff76c75a3bf6b0f256530fb1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 37 |
| 2026-04-19 | 31 |
| 2026-04-26 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 48 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Before May 15, 2026 +11pp 65→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · No Handshake +9pp 5→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Yes −8pp 25→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Before May 15, 2026 +7pp 76→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Yes −7pp 32→25¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmentionduration
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpmentionduration
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.