# Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpnomnum
Updated: 2026-08-07T01:20:52.297Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-09

## Headline

- Leader: At least 2 at 46%
- Runner-up: At least 3 at 34%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $302

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 2 | 46¢ | −4pp | $302 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-2-presidential-nominations-kalshi-kxtrumpnomnum-26aug02-t2 |
| At least 3 | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-3-presidential-nominations-kalshi-kxtrumpnomnum-26aug02-t3 |
| At least 5 | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-5-presidential-nominations-kalshi-kxtrumpnomnum-26aug02-t5 |
| At least 10 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-at-least-10-presidential-nominations-kalshi-kxtrumpnomnum-26aug02-t10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 2 | At least 3 | At least 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 62 | 47 | 32 |
| 2026-08-05 | 50 | 36 | 20 |
| 2026-08-06 | 46 | 34 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-04 · At least 2 −6pp 58→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · At least 3 −6pp 43→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-06 · At least 2 −4pp 50→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-02 · At least 5 −4pp 32→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-02 · At least 2 −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 15% probability that the White House will submit at least three presidential nominations to the Senate during the week of July 19, 2026. Presidential nomination activity typically correlates with legislative priorities, cabinet vacancies, or policy shifts. The current low probability suggests markets expect lighter nomination volume during this particular week, which may reflect typical summer legislative rhythms or the absence of announced vacancies requiring immediate replacement. Nomination submission decisions depend on White House scheduling, Senate availability, and the urgency of staffing needs. The outcome will be definitively resolved by counting official nominations received by the Senate during the specified week, making this a verifiable metric.

### Key factors

- Historical nomination submission patterns for mid-July weeks versus other periods in the calendar year
- Whether any cabinet-level or senior positions are vacant or anticipated to become vacant before or during that week
- Senate legislative schedule and recess dates that affect nomination processing capacity during July 19-25, 2026
- White House personnel changes, resignations, or planned departures announced before the resolution week
- Current backlog of pending nominations awaiting Senate confirmation that might prompt accelerated submissions

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpnomnum
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpnomnum
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.