# 4

> 6 leads at 17%, runner-up 15% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpnumstates
Updated: 2026-05-03T21:50:59.711Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: 6 at 17%
- Runner-up: 5 at 15%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 17¢ | — | $291 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t6 |
| 5 | 15¢ | — | $292 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t5 |
| 3 | 15¢ | +1pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t3 |
| 4 | 15¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t4 |
| 7 | 9¢ | +1pp | $296 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t7 |
| 8 | 3¢ | — | $311 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t8 |
| At least 9 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-distinct-us-states-donald-trump-kalshi-kxtrumpnumstates-26jun01-t9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 6 | 5 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 17 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 18 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpnumstates
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpnumstates

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.