# Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029

> Before January 20, 2029 leads at 34%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpout27
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.939Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: Before January 20, 2029 at 34%
- Runner-up: Before 2028 at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before January 20, 2029 | 34¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-january-20-2-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-jan2029 |
| Before 2028 | 22¢ | +1pp | $176 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-2028-before-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-28 |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-august-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before January 20, 2029 | Before 2028 | Before August 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 35 | 24 | — |
| 2026-05-12 | 35 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | — | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | — | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-27 | 35 | 22 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 34 | 23 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 33 | — | 2 |
| 2026-06-05 | 34 | 22 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 35 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | — | 3 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will not complete his second term through January 20, 2029. The 27% estimate appears driven by two competing dynamics: very low near-term risk (contracts pricing imminent resignation or removal at just 5%) suggests markets view immediate departure as unlikely, while the longer-term probability accounts for cumulative risks including health considerations, legal proceedings, or political developments that could emerge over a 2.5-year horizon. The baseline expectation remains that Trump serves his full term, but markets assign non-trivial probability to unexpected developments. Ongoing geopolitical events, court decisions on pending cases, and any major political shifts would be primary catalysts that could materially move this probability in either direction.

### Key factors

- Near-term departure probability (before August 2026) is priced at only 5%, indicating markets assess immediate resignation or removal as highly unlikely
- The probability increases substantially when extending the timeline to 2029, suggesting cumulative risk concerns rather than imminent threats
- Current contracts show relatively modest trading volume on the January 2029 contract ($2,796 24-hour), indicating limited liquidity and potential for larger probability swings with significant new information
- Markets simultaneously price very high probability (83-90%) of Trump visiting China in the near term, suggesting ongoing international engagement is expected
- The 27% probability implies roughly 73% confidence in term completion, reflecting market base case of normal presidential tenure absent extraordinary circumstances

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpout27
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpout27
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.