# Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppardon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.748Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $389

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Kiriakou | 39¢ | ±0 | $218 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-kiriakou-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-jkir |
| Julian Assange | 6¢ | ±0 | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-julian-assange-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-jass |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 16¢ | −1pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-ghislaine-maxwell-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-gmax |
| Edward Snowden | 10¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-edward-snowden-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-esno |
| Donald Trump | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-receive-a-presidential-pardon-be-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-djt |
| Keonne Rodriguez | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keonne-rodriguez-receive-a-presidential-pardo-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-krod |
| Derek Chauvin | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derek-chauvin-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-dchau |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-bankman-fried-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-sbf |
| Jared Kushner | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-kushner-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-jkus |
| Eric Adams | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-adams-receive-a-presidential-pardon-befo-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-eada |
| Steve Bannon | 17¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-bannon-receive-a-presidential-pardon-be-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-sban |
| Bob Menendez | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bob-menendez-receive-a-presidential-pardon-be-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-bmen |
| Roger Ver | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-roger-ver-receive-a-presidential-pardon-befor-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-rver |
| Matt Borges | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-borges-receive-a-presidential-pardon-bef-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-mbor |
| Sean Combs | 8¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-combs-receive-a-presidential-pardon-befo-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-scom |
| Robin Smith | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robin-smith-receive-a-presidential-pardon-bef-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-rsmi |
| Larry Householder | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-householder-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-lhou |
| Joseph Maldonado | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joseph-maldonado-receive-a-presidential-pardo-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-jmal |
| Torence Hatch | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-torence-hatch-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-that |
| Kenneth Petty | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenneth-petty-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardon-27jan01-kpet |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 20 |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Steve Bannon +6pp 11→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · John Kiriakou +4pp 38→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Ghislaine Maxwell +4pp 13→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Derek Chauvin −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects the probability that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder will receive a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Householder was convicted in 2021 of federal racketeering and bribery charges related to a $60 million corruption scheme, making him a lower-profile figure compared to other pardon candidates. The 12% probability suggests traders see meaningful but limited odds of a pardon during the current presidential term. Key drivers would include whether Householder receives prominent advocacy from political allies, whether the Justice Department reopens aspects of his case, and how many high-profile pardons the administration grants overall. The main catalyst for resolution is the presidential term ending on January 1, 2027, at which point his eligibility for a pardon becomes moot.

### Key factors

- Householder's conviction involved corruption unrelated to political causes or national security, which historically receives fewer pardons than cases with ideological framing
- His case has generated minimal recent media coverage or public advocacy campaigns compared to other pending pardon candidates
- The comparison contracts show similar low probabilities for non-aligned figures (Derek Chauvin at 8%) versus higher rates for perceived political allies or security-related cases (John Kiriakou at 44%)
- Ohio remains a politically significant state, which could increase likelihood of state-focused criminal justice interventions
- The eight-month timeline constrains opportunities for new developments or advocacy campaigns that could shift likelihood

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppardon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumppardon

## License

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