# Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 19 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppardons
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.280Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-21

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | 54¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-djtr |
| Barron Trump | 40¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-barron-trump-receive-a-presidential-pardon-be-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-bar |
| Marco Rubio | 38¢ | −5pp | $750 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-receive-a-presidential-pardon-bef-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-mrub |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 47¢ | +1pp | $710 | kalshi | /markets/will-ghislaine-maxwell-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-gmax |
| Jared Kushner | 37¢ | +1pp | $700 | kalshi | /markets/will-jared-kushner-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-jkus |
| Donald Trump | 52¢ | −5pp | $379 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-receive-a-presidential-pardon-be-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-djt |
| Edward Snowden | 39¢ | ±0 | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-edward-snowden-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-esno |
| Scott Bessent | 46¢ | −5pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-bessent-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-sbes |
| JD Vance | 50¢ | −7pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-receive-a-presidential-pardon-before-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-jvan |
| Torence Hatch | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-torence-hatch-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-that |
| Robin Smith | 34¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robin-smith-receive-a-presidential-pardon-bef-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-rsmi |
| Sam Bankman-Fried | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sam-bankman-fried-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-sbf |
| Eric Adams | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eric-adams-receive-a-presidential-pardon-befo-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-eada |
| Derek Chauvin | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-derek-chauvin-receive-a-presidential-pardon-b-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-dcha |
| Larry Householder | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-larry-householder-receive-a-presidential-pard-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-lhou |
| Joseph Maldonado | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-joseph-maldonado-receive-a-presidential-pardo-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-jmal |
| Julian Assange | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-julian-assange-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-jass |
| Sean Combs | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-combs-receive-a-presidential-pardon-befo-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-scom |
| Matt Borges | 13¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-matt-borges-receive-a-presidential-pardon-bef-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-mbor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 32 |
| 2026-04-25 | 51 |
| 2026-05-02 | 37 |
| 2026-05-08 | 45 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · JD Vance −7pp 58→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Ghislaine Maxwell +6pp 44→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Marco Rubio −5pp 43→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Donald Trump −5pp 58→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Scott Bessent −5pp 52→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the odds that Alex Mashinsky, the former Celsius CEO convicted in cryptocurrency fraud cases, receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. At 31%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether a sitting or future president would extend clemency to a prominent crypto-industry figure convicted of financial crimes. The estimate is influenced by historical pardon rates for white-collar financial crimes, the political salience of cryptocurrency regulation, and the identity of the sitting president. Comparable contracts suggest pardons for major financial criminals remain relatively unlikely—related contracts for similar figures range from 6% to 50%—though outcomes vary significantly based on the specific case and defendant. The primary uncertainty driver is whether a future administration prioritizes cryptocurrency industry rehabilitation or maintains distance from controversial convictions in the sector.

### Key factors

- Mashinsky's conviction date, sentence length, and classification of charges relative to historical pardon patterns for financial criminals
- Current and future presidential administrations' stated positions on cryptocurrency regulation and industry figures
- Market pricing of similar pardon contracts for comparable defendants, which currently range 6-50% across different individuals and timeframes
- Whether Mashinsky exhausts or succeeds in appellate proceedings before the pardon deadline
- Public advocacy from cryptocurrency industry figures or political actors regarding clemency for Mashinsky

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppardons
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumppardons

## License

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