# Will it be reported that the United States Department of State issues one or more United States passports to U.S. citizens where the passport contains an image or visual representation of Donald Trump’s face before Jan 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 85%, runner-up 82% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppassport
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:43.671Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 85%
- Runner-up: Before Sep 1, 2026 at 82%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 85¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-that-the-united-states-departm-kalshi-kxtrumppassport-26-jan01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 82¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-that-the-united-states-departm-kalshi-kxtrumppassport-26-sep01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 71¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-that-the-united-states-departm-kalshi-kxtrumppassport-26-aug01 |
| Before Jul 20, 2026 | 69¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-that-the-united-states-departm-kalshi-kxtrumppassport-26-jul20 |
| Before Jul 4, 2026 | 27¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-that-the-united-states-departm-kalshi-kxtrumppassport-26-jul04 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 71 |
| 2026-05-07 | 70 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates an 85% chance that the U.S. Department of State will issue at least one passport featuring Donald Trump's likeness before January 1, 2027. The high probability reflects market expectations that such a decision is likely within the next eight months, though the tighter odds on the August deadline (79%) suggest uncertainty about timing. Key drivers include whether the Trump administration formally authorizes commemorative or special-edition passports and whether the State Department implements such an initiative before year-end. The earliest decision point appears around early July 2026 (27% probability), with confidence climbing significantly by August. Movement will depend on official announcements from State Department leadership and any legislative actions or directives concerning passport design.

### Key factors

- State Department authorization: Whether leadership issues a formal directive to mint passports with Trump imagery, which would typically require departmental approval
- Timing window: The sharp probability drop from 85% (Jan 1, 2027) to 27% (Jul 4, 2026) indicates markets expect resolution or implementation between July and September 2026
- Precedent and process: Whether commemorative or special-edition U.S. passports featuring political figures have been issued before, and the typical timeline for design and production approval
- Official announcement: Any public statement, press release, or reported policy decision from State Department officials regarding Trump-branded passport initiatives
- Media verification requirement: The resolution criterion requires public reporting of actual issuance—proposed but unimplemented plans would not satisfy the market condition

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumppassport
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumppassport
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.