# Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026

> Above 15 leads at 73%, runner-up 66% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumprallies
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:48.732Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Above 15 at 73%
- Runner-up: Above 20 at 66%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $52

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 | 73¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-15-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a15 |
| Above 20 | 66¢ | +1pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-20-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a20 |
| Above 25 | 54¢ | +1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-25-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a25 |
| Above 30 | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-30-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a30 |
| Above 35 | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-35-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a35 |
| Above 40 | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-rallies-be-above-40-from-kalshi-kxtrumprallies-26nov03-a40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 15 | Above 20 | Above 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 72 | 58 | 46 |
| 2026-06-11 | 76 | 68 | 59 |
| 2026-06-19 | 74 | 67 | 55 |
| 2026-06-26 | 74 | 66 | 55 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Above 40 −7pp 25→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 35 −6pp 38→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 30 −5pp 51→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Above 25 −4pp 59→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contracts series tracks whether Trump will hold more than 15, 20, 25, 35, or 40 campaign rallies between January and November 2026. The 80% probability on "above 15" reflects market expectation that he will exceed the lowest threshold, while the 55% price on "above 25" suggests substantial uncertainty about higher rally frequencies. The current pricing indicates traders expect Trump to hold somewhere in the 15-30 rally range during this period. Campaign intensity typically correlates with election proximity; with November 2026 being a midterm cycle, rally frequency depends partly on Trump's formal campaign involvement and the GOP's resource allocation. The main factors shifting probabilities would be whether Trump becomes an official 2028 candidate (increasing rally activity) or faces competing demands. Resolution depends on documented rally attendance counts from recognized Trump campaign events.

### Key factors

- Trump's official 2028 candidacy status — if formally announced, expected to significantly increase rally frequency
- Historical rally pace in 2022-2024 midterm/primary cycles — establishes baseline for comparable campaign intensity
- Competing time demands such as legal proceedings or other business commitments affecting availability
- Definition of qualifying rallies — whether only official campaign events count or broader political appearances are included
- Geographic distribution patterns — whether he concentrates rallies in specific swing states or spreads activity nationally

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumprallies
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumprallies
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.