# Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026

> Greenland leads at 66%, runner-up 62% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsaymonth
Updated: 2026-06-17T17:20:21.332Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Greenland at 66%
- Runner-up: Crypto / Bitcoin at 62%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenland | 66¢ | +12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-greenland-before-jul-1-2026-greenla-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-gree |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | 62¢ | −3pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-crypto-bitcoin-before-jul-1-2026-cr-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-cryp |
| Autism | 61¢ | ±0 | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-autism-before-jul-1-2026-autism-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-auti |
| American Dream | 57¢ | −3pp | $109 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-american-dream-before-jul-1-2026-am-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-amer |
| Kimmel | 52¢ | +4pp | $132 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-kimmel-before-jul-1-2026-kimmel-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-kimm |
| Palestine / Palestinian | 50¢ | +3pp | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-palestine-palestinian-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-pale |
| UFO / UAP | 41¢ | +4pp | $424 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-ufo-uap-before-jul-1-2026-ufo-uap-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-ufo |
| Fat shot / Ozempic | 41¢ | −20pp | $71 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-fat-shot-ozempic-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-fat |
| Nine War / Ninth War | 27¢ | −4pp | $97 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-nine-war-ninth-war-before-jul-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-nine |
| Pelosi | 25¢ | −1pp | $233 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-pelosi-before-jul-1-2026-pelosi-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-pelo |
| Moscow | 20¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-moscow-before-jul-1-2026-moscow-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-mosc |
| Make Iran Great Again | 17¢ | −2pp | $421 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-make-iran-great-again-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-make |
| Goat | 14¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-goat-before-jul-1-2026-goat-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-goat |
| Epstein Island | 6¢ | −1pp | $575 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-epstein-island-before-jul-1-2026-ep-kalshi-kxtrumpsaymonth-26jul01-epsti |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Greenland | Crypto / Bitcoin | Autism |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 17 | 51 | 47 |
| 2026-06-03 | 42 | 69 | 76 |
| 2026-06-10 | 42 | 64 | 66 |
| 2026-06-17 | 59 | 62 | 62 |

_17 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · Fat shot / Ozempic −20pp 49→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-14 · Goat −19pp 43→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Palestine / Palestinian +16pp 36→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Greenland +14pp 33→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Goat −14pp 37→23¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsaymonth
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpsaymonth
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.