# Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026

> Low Energy leads at 14%, runner-up 8% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 59 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsaynickname
Updated: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.588Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Low Energy at 14%
- Runner-up: Biden Crime Family at 8%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Energy | 14¢ | −2pp | $607 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-low-energy-before-jul-1-2026-low-en-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-lowe |
| Biden Crime Family | 8¢ | −6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-biden-crime-family-before-jul-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-bide |
| Rocket Man | 5¢ | −1pp | $576 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-rocket-man-before-jul-1-2026-rocket-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-rock |
| Marjorie Traitor Greene | 5¢ | −2pp | $530 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-marjorie-traitor-greene-before-jul-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-marj |
| Crazy Bernie | 5¢ | −4pp | $224 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-crazy-bernie-before-jul-1-2026-craz-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-craz |
| Little Communist | 4¢ | +1pp | $741 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-little-communist-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-litt |
| Tampon Tim | 3¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-tampon-tim-before-jul-1-2026-tampon-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-tamp |
| Comrade Kamala | 3¢ | +1pp | $697 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-comrade-kamala-before-jul-1-2026-co-kalshi-kxtrumpsaynickname-26jul01-comr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Low Energy | Biden Crime Family | Rocket Man |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 34 | 17 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 26 | 10 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 15 | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 12 | 6 | 1 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Low Energy +7pp 13→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Biden Crime Family −6pp 12→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Rocket Man +6pp 3→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Low Energy −5pp 20→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Biden Crime Family +4pp 9→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 55% chance that former President Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public before July 1, 2026. The probability reflects Trump's documented history of assigning insulting nicknames to political figures, balanced against the specificity required—he would need to use this particular phrase rather than other possible variants or criticisms of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The timeline is approximately two months. The main drivers are Trump's communication frequency and willingness to escalate rhetoric toward Greene, potentially influenced by political developments or statements from her that provoke a response. Related contracts show Trump frequently uses names and phrases in public appearances, though predicting exact wording remains inherently uncertain. The resolution depends on documented public statements, speeches, social media posts, or media appearances through the deadline.

### Key factors

- Trump's baseline frequency of public statements and nickname usage over comparable two-month periods in 2025-2026
- Prior instances of Trump using similar 'traitor' language toward specific political figures and whether Greene has been a recent target
- Whether major political events between now and July 1 (legislative votes, hearings, or statements from Greene) would prompt Trump to respond
- The definition of 'say' as applied to various media formats—whether it covers prepared statements, spontaneous remarks, Truth Social posts, or only direct speech
- Historical accuracy of prediction markets on Trump's specific phrase usage versus broader behavioral patterns

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsaynickname
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpsaynickname
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.