# Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027

> New England leads at 92%, runner-up 91% across 12 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpstates
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.296Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: New England at 92%
- Runner-up: New York at 91%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $207

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-connecticut-maine-massachu-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-ne |
| New York | 91¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-new-york-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-ny |
| Alaska | 82¢ | −2pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-alaska-before-jan-1-2027-a-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-ak |
| California | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-california-before-jan-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-ca |
| Wisconsin | 68¢ | +1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-wisconsin-before-jan-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-wi |
| North Carolina | 61¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-north-carolina-before-jan-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-nc |
| South Carolina | 60¢ | +4pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-south-carolina-before-jan-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-sc |
| Montana | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-montana-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-mt |
| Minnesota | 50¢ | +1pp | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-minnesota-before-jan-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-mn |
| Colorado | 39¢ | ±0 | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-colorado-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-co |
| Kansas | 37¢ | +1pp | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-kansas-before-jan-1-2027-k-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-ks |
| Hawaii | 22¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-hawaii-before-jan-1-2027-h-kalshi-kxtrumpstates-27jan01-hi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | New England | New York | Alaska |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | — | 52 |
| 2026-04-10 | — | 88 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 61 | 88 | 47 |
| 2026-04-23 | 65 | 90 | 48 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 48 |
| 2026-04-26 | 66 | — | 48 |
| 2026-04-30 | — | 91 | 52 |
| 2026-05-02 | 64 | — | 54 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | — | 82 |
| 2026-05-09 | 92 | — | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Alaska +32pp 55→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Minnesota +16pp 35→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · New England +14pp 79→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · New England +9pp 64→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Wisconsin −8pp 70→62¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Donald Trump has a high likelihood of visiting New York before January 1, 2027. The 91% price suggests traders view a New York visit as substantially probable within the remaining eight months. The main drivers of this level are Trump's known residences and business interests in New York—including Trump Tower in Manhattan—and his historical pattern of frequent U.S. travel during his presidency. The probability could decline if Trump's schedule becomes heavily focused on travel elsewhere or if unexpected circumstances limit his movement. The key near-term catalyst is tracking his actual travel schedule over the next several months; any confirmed New York visit would resolve this contract. Notably, related Kalshi contracts show high probabilities for Trump visiting China before year-end, suggesting market confidence in his international travel plans as well.

### Key factors

- Trump maintains significant personal and business interests in New York, including Trump Tower headquarters and real estate holdings that typically require periodic attention
- Historical travel patterns show Trump frequently visited New York during his presidency for both business and personal reasons
- No scheduled restrictions or announced plans currently preventing Trump from traveling domestically within the remaining 243 days until expiration
- The 91% price is substantially higher than the 68% runner-up contract, indicating market consensus around this outcome rather than close competition
- Related contracts pricing China visits at 89-93% suggest traders expect active travel plans generally, which could correlate with New York accessibility

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpstates
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpstates
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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