# Will Donald Trump sue CBS before May 2026

> Before Jul 1, 2026 leads at 95%, runner-up 92% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsue
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:21.746Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 95%
- Runner-up: Before Jun 1, 2026 at 92%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 95¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jul-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-jul01 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 92¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jun-1-2026-be-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-jun01 |
| China | 90¢ | ±0 | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-jan-1-2027-ch-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-chi |
| Before May 15, 2026 | 83¢ | +7pp | $17K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-may-15-2026-b-kalshi-kxtrumpchina-26-may15 |
| Yes | 79¢ | +2pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-im-kalshi-kxnewtariffs-26may-jun01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 65¢ | ±0 | $911 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-aug01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 62¢ | +10pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-sep01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 58¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-jul01 |
| Before January 20, 2029 | 38¢ | ±0 | $371 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-january-20-2-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-jan2029 |
| Before 2028 | 31¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-2028-before-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-28 |
| Before Jun 1, 2026 | 29¢ | −2pp | $688 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-jun01 |
| Before Nov 4, 2026 | 27¢ | +2pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26nov04 |
| Donald Trump → John Cornyn | 23¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-in-the-2026-kalshi-kxtxrunoffendorse-26may26-djt-jcor |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26sep01 |
| Yes | 11¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-re-kalshi-kxfifatravel-26jun11 |
| Donald Trump → John Cornyn AND Ken Paxton | 8¢ | ±0 | $509 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-john-cornyn-and-ken-paxt-kalshi-kxtxrunoffendorse-26may26-djt-both |
| Vatican City | 7¢ | −3pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-vatican-city-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-vat |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 6¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-de-kalshi-kxelectionemergency-26jul01 |
| Before August 1, 2026 | 5¢ | ±0 | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-august-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 |
| Before May 8, 2026 | 5¢ | −4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-issue-any-official-announcement-kalshi-kxagannounce-26-may08 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jul 1, 2026 | Before Jun 1, 2026 | China |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 81 | 81 | 86 |
| 2026-04-19 | 82 | 79 | — |
| 2026-04-20 | 78 | 77 | 89 |
| 2026-04-25 | 74 | 69 | 85 |
| 2026-04-26 | 75 | 69 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | 89 | 90 |
| 2026-05-03 | 93 | 89 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Before Sep 1, 2026 −21pp 74→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Before Jul 1, 2026 −13pp 59→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Before May 15, 2026 +11pp 65→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −10pp 66→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Before Sep 1, 2026 +10pp 53→63¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpsue
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpsue
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.