# Will Trump post on Truth Social between 4:00 AM and 4:59 AM ET this week

> 1-2 AM leads at 26%, runner-up 16% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumptime
Updated: 2026-05-09T02:05:43.962Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: 1-2 AM at 26%
- Runner-up: 2-3 AM at 16%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $303

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 AM | 26¢ | −1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-post-on-truth-social-between-100-am-and-kalshi-kxtrumptime-26may09-h1 |
| 2-3 AM | 16¢ | −3pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-post-on-truth-social-between-200-am-and-kalshi-kxtrumptime-26may09-h2 |
| 4-5 AM | 10¢ | −5pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-post-on-truth-social-between-400-am-and-kalshi-kxtrumptime-26may09-h4 |
| 3-4 AM | 6¢ | +3pp | $104 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-post-on-truth-social-between-300-am-and-kalshi-kxtrumptime-26may09-h3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1-2 AM | 2-3 AM | 4-5 AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 59 | 40 | 20 |
| 2026-05-03 | 59 | 38 | 17 |
| 2026-05-06 | 21 | 11 | 9 |
| 2026-05-07 | 27 | 21 | 15 |
| 2026-05-08 | 26 | 18 | 10 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · 1-2 AM −38pp 59→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 2-3 AM −27pp 38→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · 2-3 AM +10pp 11→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · 3-4 AM −8pp 20→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 4-5 AM −8pp 17→9¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumptime
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumptime
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.