# Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumptopic
Updated: 2026-06-06T07:20:12.449Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Economy at 45%
- Runner-up: Election at 39%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 45¢ | −12pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/which-topic-will-donald-trump-mention-most-during-kalshi-kxtrumptopic-26jun05-econ |
| Election | 39¢ | +4pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-topic-will-donald-trump-mention-most-during-kalshi-kxtrumptopic-26jun05-elec |
| Immigration | 6¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/which-topic-will-donald-trump-mention-most-during-kalshi-kxtrumptopic-26jun05-immi |
| Iran | 3¢ | −12pp | $851 | kalshi | /markets/which-topic-will-donald-trump-mention-most-during-kalshi-kxtrumptopic-26jun05-iran |
| Event does not qualify | 3¢ | ±0 | $461 | kalshi | /markets/which-topic-will-donald-trump-mention-most-during-kalshi-kxtrumptopic-26jun05-nqe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Economy | Election | Immigration |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 24 | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-06-03 | 58 | 29 | 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | 58 | 34 | 5 |
| 2026-06-05 | 46 | 38 | 5 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Economy +34pp 24→58¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Election +26pp 3→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Economy −12pp 58→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Iran −12pp 18→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Iran +11pp 8→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that "Economy" will be the most frequently mentioned topic during a Trump roundtable event scheduled in Chippewa Falls, Wisconsin. Currently priced at 4%, the Economy outcome leads a competitive five-way race where all alternatives cluster within 1 percentage point of each other, suggesting genuine uncertainty about which subject will dominate Trump's remarks. The low concentration reflects that this type of event has unpredictable discourse patterns—Trump may emphasize different themes depending on recent news cycles, local economic conditions, or questions posed by attendees. Resolution depends on the actual roundtable discussion, where topic frequency will be determined by reviewing remarks and statements. Factors that could shift probabilities include pre-event news developments, economic data releases before the event, or Trump's stated priorities in the weeks leading up to the gathering.

### Key factors

- The narrow spread across all five contract outcomes (4-5¢) indicates markets assign substantial probability mass across Economy, Election, Fraud, Healthcare, and Iran rather than concentrating on a single dominant topic
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests limited recent activity and potential illiquidity, making current prices potentially sticky and slow to update with new information
- Trump's discourse patterns at similar roundtable events typically span multiple policy areas, making prediction of the single most-mentioned topic inherently uncertain without knowing specific agenda or triggering events
- Recent macroeconomic conditions, inflation data, or financial market movements immediately before the event could increase salience of Economy as a discussion topic
- The geographical location (Wisconsin, a swing state) and roundtable format may influence whether political topics like Election and Fraud gain emphasis relative to policy domains

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumptopic
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumptopic
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.