# Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026

> Before Aug 1, 2026 leads at 23%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpuap
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.738Z
Category: politics · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026 at 23%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2026 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $568

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 23¢ | −1pp | $191 | kalshi | /markets/will-president-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-kalshi-kxtrumpuap-26may-aug01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $377 | kalshi | /markets/will-president-trump-issue-any-executive-action-on-kalshi-kxtrumpuap-26may-jul01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Aug 1, 2026 | Before Jul 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | — | 22 |
| 2026-05-27 | 29 | 21 |
| 2026-06-11 | 27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-18 | 23 | 3 |
| 2026-06-25 | 22 | 4 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates traders assess roughly a 26% chance that President Trump will issue an executive action on UAP/UFO declassification or record releases by August 1, 2026—less likely than not, but a meaningful tail scenario. The relatively low probability reflects Trump's competing priorities and the lack of explicit recent public commitments on this specific issue, despite his stated interest in government transparency. The July 1 contract trades slightly lower at 20%, suggesting incrementally lower odds for the tighter deadline. Key catalysts include formal Freedom of Information Act requests, congressional UAP hearing testimony, or statements from Trump or his administration that signal imminent action. Traders would monitor whether UAP remains a prominent policy focus versus receding amid other administration priorities.

### Key factors

- Trump's prior public statements on UAP/UFO transparency and whether recent comments indicate active policy development
- Volume and intensity of congressional UAP legislative efforts—House or Senate bills that might prompt executive response
- Any public commitments Trump makes in May-June 2026 specifically tying executive action timing to the July-August window
- Historical pace of Trump executive actions in his first 100+ days of office; whether declassification orders have appeared in early 2026
- Statements from key officials (Defense Secretary, National Security Advisor, DNI) about UAP transparency timelines

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpuap
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpuap
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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