# Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332

> Yes leads at 7%, runner-up 6% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpufc
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.210Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-25

## Headline

- Leader: Yes at 7%
- Runner-up: Yes at 6%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7¢ | −1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-331-yes-kalshi-kxtrumpufc-26sep-djt |
| Yes | 6¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-332-yes-kalshi-kxtrumpufc-26oct-djt |
| Yes | 4¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-333-yes-kalshi-kxtrumpufc-26oct2-djt |
| Yes | 3¢ | −2pp | $26K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-attend-ufc-330-yes-kalshi-kxtrumpufc-26aug-djt |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Yes | Yes | Yes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | 12 | 12 | 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | 10 | 9 | 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | 6 | 6 | — |
| 2026-08-06 | 5 | — | — |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Yes −5pp 10→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Yes −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Yes −3pp 7→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Yes −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-05 · Yes −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will attend UFC 332, based on trading activity across four related contracts. The relatively low probability suggests skepticism about attendance, though the comparable 12% price for UFC 331 indicates uncertainty extends across multiple upcoming events rather than specific factors tied to UFC 332 itself. The main drivers are Trump's historical attendance patterns at major sporting events, his current political schedule and commitments, and the timing of UFC 332's event date. The event's actual occurrence will provide definitive resolution, making the scheduled date the key catalyst that triggers settlement. Broader context includes Trump's variable public appearances and his demonstrated interest in high-profile entertainment venues, balanced against unpredictable scheduling demands.

### Key factors

- UFC 332's scheduled event date and whether it falls during a period when Trump's political or personal schedule permits attendance
- Historical frequency of Trump attending UFC events in prior years compared to other major sporting events
- Trading volume remains extremely low for UFC 332 ($8 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- The price for UFC 331 attendance equals UFC 332's probability (12%), indicating traders may view these as similarly unlikely rather than basing assessments on distinct event-specific factors
- Distance between today (August 2026) and UFC 332's event date affects the reliability of current probability as a predictor, with earlier events (UFC 330 at 9%) commanding higher perceived likelihood

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpufc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpufc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.