# Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Hunter Biden has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027

> Anyone leads at 34%, runner-up 31% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpwep
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.619Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Anyone at 34%
- Runner-up: Enrique Tarrio at 31%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $260

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anyone | 34¢ | +6pp | $119 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-jan01 |
| Enrique Tarrio | 31¢ | +16pp | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-etar |
| Mike Lindell | 20¢ | +10pp | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-mlin |
| Michael Caputo | 7¢ | +2pp | $101 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-mcap |
| Hunter Biden | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-hbid |
| Kash Patel | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-it-be-reported-by-any-of-the-source-agencies-kalshi-kxtrumpwep-27-kpet |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Anyone | Enrique Tarrio | Mike Lindell |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 27 | — | — |
| 2026-05-23 | 29 | — | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 26 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-05-25 | 26 | 15 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 32 | 31 | 17 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Enrique Tarrio +16pp 15→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Mike Lindell +10pp 7→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-25 · Enrique Tarrio +8pp 7→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-27 · Anyone +6pp 26→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Anyone −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Hunter Biden will be reported to have received a monetary payment from the Department of Justice's Anti-Weaponization Fund by year-end 2026. The 7% market price suggests traders view this as unlikely compared to other named recipients, with Enrique Tarrio at 27% and the broader "Anyone" category at 30%. The relatively low probability may reflect limited public information about the fund's operations, eligibility criteria, and intended beneficiaries since its May 2026 establishment. Key drivers include whether the DOJ will make payments before 2027, which individuals or groups qualify, and whether such payments would be publicly reported by relevant agencies. Resolution depends on disclosures from source agencies monitoring fund distribution, with the year-end deadline creating a defined window for verification.

### Key factors

- The Anti-Weaponization Fund was established May 18, 2026, providing only 7.5 months to distribute funds and generate public reporting before the resolution date of January 1, 2027
- Market pricing shows Hunter Biden at 7 cents versus Enrique Tarrio at 27 cents and "Anyone" at 30 cents, suggesting traders view his eligibility or likelihood of receiving payments as lower than other specified individuals
- No publicly available information exists yet about fund eligibility criteria, application processes, or preliminary payment decisions as of May 2026
- The contract requires reporting 'by any of the Source Agencies' rather than mere confirmation of payment, adding an additional dependency on disclosure
- Zero trading volume on the Hunter Biden contract in the past 24 hours indicates minimal recent market interest or new information flowing into this specific outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpwep
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpwep

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.