# How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season

> At least 1 leads at 93%, runner-up 41% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 59 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpworldcup
Updated: 2026-06-17T14:20:19.350Z
Category: sports · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: At least 1 at 93%
- Runner-up: At least 2 at 41%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 1 | 93¢ | +4pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-2026-fifa-world-cup-matches-will-donald-t-kalshi-kxtrumpworldcup-26-djt-1 |
| At least 2 | 41¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-2026-fifa-world-cup-matches-will-donald-t-kalshi-kxtrumpworldcup-26-djt-2 |
| At least 3 | 15¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-2026-fifa-world-cup-matches-will-donald-t-kalshi-kxtrumpworldcup-26-djt-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 1 | At least 2 | At least 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | 85 | 27 | 12 |
| 2026-06-17 | 93 | 41 | 15 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · At least 2 +15pp 27→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · At least 2 +11pp 42→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · At least 2 −8pp 50→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · At least 3 +5pp 12→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · At least 1 +4pp 89→93¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 85% chance that Donald Trump will attend at least one match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs from June to July across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This high probability reflects Trump's documented interest in high-profile sporting events and his frequent public appearances, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of his schedule and whether he will prioritize World Cup attendance over other commitments. The gap between the 85% probability for at least one match and the 45% probability for at least two matches suggests uncertainty about the depth of his involvement. Key catalysts will be his stated intentions regarding World Cup attendance and any formal invitations or public commitments he makes in the months leading up to the tournament. Resolution will occur when the tournament concludes in July 2026, at which point records of his actual attendance will be verifiable through media coverage, official records, or public documentation.

### Key factors

- Trump's pattern of attending major sporting events (Super Bowls, championship matches, golf tournaments) during comparable time periods
- The 2026 World Cup's location in North America, reducing travel friction compared to previous tournaments in Europe or Asia
- Public scheduling conflicts or other major commitments that could compete for his time during June-July 2026
- Formal invitations or public statements from Trump or tournament organizers regarding his potential attendance
- Media tracking and verification capability—attendance at major televised events is typically documented through photography and official records

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpworldcup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpworldcup
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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