# Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 22%, runner-up 12% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tryfirecook
Updated: 2026-07-10T23:20:49.153Z
Category: politics · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 22%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 12%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 22¢ | — | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-president-try-to-fire-the-lisa-cook-as-me-kalshi-kxtryfirecook-27jan01-27jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 12¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-president-try-to-fire-the-lisa-cook-as-me-kalshi-kxtryfirecook-27jan01-26oct01 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-president-try-to-fire-the-lisa-cook-as-me-kalshi-kxtryfirecook-27jan01-26aug01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 | Before Aug 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 16 | 14 | 7 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that the sitting President will attempt to remove Lisa Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before January 1, 2027. The 22% probability reflects moderate positioning relative to the higher uncertainty at nearer dates—the market prices only a 12% chance of action before October 1 and 3% before August 1. Market participants appear to be weighing the President's stated criticism of Federal Reserve independence against the procedural and political constraints on removing a sitting Board member. The primary factors driving this level are the President's policy disagreements with current Fed leadership and Cook's voting record, balanced against the significant legal and institutional obstacles to removal. Cook's term runs through 2028, and any removal attempt would face scrutiny. The earliest meaningful catalyst would be executive statements or formal notification of intent before the October deadline.

### Key factors

- The President has publicly criticized Federal Reserve policy and individual governors' voting records; direct statements or formal removal proposals would be primary signals of intent
- Federal Reserve governors serve staggered 14-year terms and can only be removed for 'cause' under statute; a legal determination of cause would be required for any removal
- Prior removal attempts or threats against Fed governors are rare historical precedents; the lack of established norm makes this outcome less predictable than routine appointments
- Market pricing shows sharp compression across time horizons (3% to 22%), suggesting uncertainty is concentrated in the Oct 2026–Jan 2027 window rather than imminent action
- Cook's term extends to 2028 with no scheduled event forcing a resolution before January 2027, meaning markets are pricing speculative executive action rather than calendar-driven events

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tryfirecook
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tryfirecook
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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