# Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026

> Above 340000 leads at 97%, runner-up 97% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tsla
Updated: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.071Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-21

## Headline

- Leader: Above 340000 at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 340000 at 97%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 340000 | 97¢ | +1pp | $103 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-340000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-340000.0 |
| Above 340000 | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-340000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-340000.0 |
| Above 330000 | 96¢ | ±0 | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-330000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-330000.0 |
| Above 360000 | 93¢ | −2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-360000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-360000.0 |
| above 380000 | 92¢ | −2pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-380000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-380000.0 |
| above 400000 | 84¢ | −10pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-400000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-400000.0 |
| Above 410000 | 78¢ | −9pp | $637 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-410000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-410000.0 |
| above 420000 | 76¢ | −11pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-420000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-420000.0 |
| Above 420000 | 58¢ | +1pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-420000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-420000.0 |
| above 430000 | 55¢ | −14pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-430000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-430000.0 |
| Above 440000 | 49¢ | −5pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-440000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-440000.0 |
| Above 430000 | 43¢ | +1pp | $88 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-430000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-430000 |
| Above 450000 | 38¢ | −9pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-450000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-450000.0 |
| Above 440000 | 38¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-440000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-440000.0 |
| Above 460000 | 34¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-460000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-460000.0 |
| Above 470000 | 26¢ | +5pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-470000-total-deliverie-kalshi-kxtsla-26juldeliv-470000 |
| Above 450000 | 22¢ | +2pp | $77 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-450000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-450000 |
| Above 460000 | 18¢ | ±0 | $200 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-460000-total-productio-kalshi-kxtsla-26julprod-460000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 340000 | Above 340000 | Above 330000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 92 | — | 93 |
| 2026-06-03 | 94 | 93 | 93 |
| 2026-06-13 | 96 | 97 | 96 |
| 2026-06-14 | 97 | — | — |
| 2026-06-22 | 98 | 97 | 96 |
| 2026-06-26 | 99 | 97 | 95 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-27 · above 430000 −14pp 50→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · above 420000 −11pp 65→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · above 400000 −10pp 86→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Above 450000 −9pp 40→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Above 410000 −9pp 74→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing a 95% chance that Tesla will deliver more than 440,000 vehicles in Q2 2026. This reflects high confidence based on Tesla's recent production capacity and historical delivery trends. The primary drivers are Tesla's global factory output rates—particularly Shanghai and Berlin ramp performance—and whether demand holds steady through the quarter. Key uncertainties include potential supply chain disruptions, pricing pressure from competition, and macroeconomic shifts affecting EV sales. The outcome resolves when Tesla reports official Q2 2026 delivery figures, typically in early July. The tight clustering of related contracts (430k at 43¢, 440k at 40¢, 450k at 27¢) suggests market participants see modest downside risk but significant probability mass around the 430–450k range.

### Key factors

- Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery run rate and whether it sustained or accelerated into Q2
- Current operating capacity utilization at Shanghai, Berlin, Austin, and Fremont factories as of May 2026
- Industry-wide EV demand trends and competitive pricing pressure in major markets during April–June 2026
- Supply chain availability for critical components (batteries, semiconductors) through June 2026
- Tesla's stated production guidance or management commentary on Q2 expectations released during May 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tsla
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tsla

## License

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