# Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.8 million total deliveries in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 59% across 18 contracts — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tslaa
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.831Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Probability: 59% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5 million | 93¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-15-million-total-deliv-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1500000.0 |
| Above 1.55 million | 83¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-155-million-total-deli-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1550000.0 |
| Above 1.6 million | 57¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-16-million-total-deliv-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1600000.0 |
| Above 1.65 million | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-165-million-total-deli-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1650000.0 |
| Above 1.7 million | 21¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-17-million-total-deliv-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1700000.0 |
| Above 1.75 million | 7¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-175-million-total-deli-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1750000.0 |
| Above 1.8 million | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-18-million-total-deliv-kalshi-kxtslaa-28jandel-1800000.0 |
| Above 120000 | 96¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-120000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-120000 |
| Above 125000 | 91¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-125000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-125000 |
| Above 130000 | 88¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-130000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-130000 |
| Above 135000 | 81¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-135000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-135000 |
| Above 140000 | 44¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-140000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-140000 |
| Above 145000 | 17¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-145000-total-employee-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janhead-145000 |
| Above 1.5 million | 95¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-15-million-total-produ-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janprod-1500000.0 |
| Above 1.55 million | 89¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-155-million-total-prod-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janprod-1550000.0 |
| Above 1.6 million | 80¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-16-million-total-produ-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janprod-1600000.0 |
| Above 1.65 million | 55¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-165-million-total-prod-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janprod-1650000.0 |
| Above 1.7 million | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tesla-inc-report-above-17-million-total-produ-kalshi-kxtslaa-28janprod-1700000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 39 |
| 2026-06-15 | 47 |
| 2026-06-22 | 52 |
| 2026-06-28 | 70 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 135000 +44pp 28→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 140000 +25pp 22→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 125000 +21pp 70→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 120000 +20pp 73→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Above 130000 +15pp 75→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Market participants are pricing an 82–90% likelihood that Tesla will deliver more than 1.5–1.8 million vehicles in 2026, with the highest-confidence threshold (1.8M) at 90%. This reflects expectations that Tesla will maintain or grow production from recent levels despite ongoing competition and macroeconomic uncertainty. The probability gradient across contracts—ranging from 79¢ for 1.5M deliveries down to 19¢ for 1.7M—suggests consensus around mid-range outcomes (1.5–1.65M) but material doubt about reaching 1.8M. Key drivers include Tesla's Q3–Q4 2026 production rates, competitive pricing pressures, factory capacity utilization in Texas and Berlin, and potential demand fluctuations tied to EV tax policy or interest rates. Final 2026 delivery figures will be announced in January 2027, resolving all outcomes simultaneously.

### Key factors

- Tesla's actual production run rate in mid-2026 compared to first-half delivery pace; significant acceleration would be required to reach 1.8M if H1 deliveries fall short of ~900K
- Capacity additions from Texas and Berlin Gigafactories; announced expansion timelines and ramp rates directly affect maximum deliverable units
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer EV demand, including interest rates, EV subsidies, and competitor pricing in key markets
- Historical delivery trends: Tesla delivered 1.81M in 2023 and approximately 1.81M in 2025; 2026 parity requires no net decline despite larger competitive fleet
- Q4 2026 seasonal strength; Tesla's traditional Q4 push accounts for 25–30% of annual deliveries and will largely determine whether 1.8M threshold is crossed

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tslaa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tslaa

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