# Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $28.5 billion gross transaction volume in Q2 2027

> Above $24.7 billion leads at 61%, runner-up 41% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ttan
Updated: 2026-09-18T14:20:52.292Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above $24.7 billion at 61%
- Runner-up: Above $25.1 billion at 41%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $24.7 billion | 61¢ | −22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-servicetitan-inc-report-above-247-billion-gro-kalshi-kxttan-26decgtv-24700000000 |
| Above $25.1 billion | 41¢ | −14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-servicetitan-inc-report-above-251-billion-gro-kalshi-kxttan-26decgtv-25100000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $24.7 billion | Above $25.1 billion |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 51 | 36 |
| 2026-09-10 | — | 45 |
| 2026-09-11 | — | 47 |
| 2026-09-17 | 24 | 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | 2 | 1 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-17 · Above $25.1 billion −32pp 47→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Above $24.7 billion −27pp 51→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above $24.7 billion −22pp 24→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-18 · Above $25.1 billion −14pp 15→1¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that ServiceTitan will process at least $28.5 billion in gross transaction volume during Q2 2027—roughly nine months from now. The 22% implied probability suggests traders view this upper threshold as achievable but not highly likely. Current pricing across the contract ladder ($0.90 for $26.5B down to $0.22 for $28.5B) indicates confidence in baseline growth but uncertainty about reaching the highest bound. Resolution will depend on ServiceTitan's actual reported GTV for the second quarter of 2027, which the company will disclose in earnings. Key drivers include the company's field-service platform adoption rate, pricing power, and ability to retain and expand its customer base through 2026 and into 2027. Macroeconomic conditions affecting home services and trades spending will also influence outcome probabilities.

### Key factors

- ServiceTitan's historical GTV growth rate and trajectory through 2024-2026 establishes a baseline growth expectation needed to reach $28.5B by Q2 2027
- The contract ladder structure reveals declining conviction at higher thresholds: $26.5B attracts 90¢ pricing while $28.5B attracts only 22¢, indicating incremental growth skepticism above ~$27B
- Q2 2027 earnings release date and actual reported GTV figure will directly settle the contract, with no ambiguity in the underlying metric
- Customer acquisition, retention, and average transaction value trends through late 2026 will be the primary observable signals affecting near-term probability movement
- Broader economic conditions in home services and discretionary trades spending between now and Q2 2027 act as an external variable independent of company execution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ttan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ttan

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.