# Tunisia vs. Japan

> Japan leads at 56%, runner-up 28% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tunisia-vs-japan
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.241Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-21

## Headline

- Leader: Japan at 56%
- Runner-up: Draw (Tunisia vs. Japan) at 28%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $25

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 56¢ | +1pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-japan-japan-polymarket-0x051e0ea5b3c394114eacf8ce5e944ca63cbb6ccdef1d086cadc5dd129a3804e6 |
| Draw (Tunisia vs. Japan) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-japan-draw-tunisia-vs-japan-polymarket-0x264e6793ab225b8fd861f13934ee8a826a864116e1dd727b38a65e2f7cd3f67c |
| Tunisia | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-japan-tunisia-polymarket-0x4c848328019296227bc205bb575cde555ed13f6fe5159e3f72636b4afd79dccd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Japan | Draw (Tunisia vs. Japan) | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 29 | 21 |
| 2026-05-01 | 57 | 29 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 56 | 29 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 | 29 | 20 |
| 2026-05-09 | 56 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Japan will defeat Tunisia in an upcoming match. The 57% level suggests Japan is favored but not overwhelmingly so, with meaningful uncertainty around Tunisia's performance. Japan's recent form, squad strength, and head-to-head history likely drive the current assessment, while Tunisia's defensive capabilities and home-field advantage (if applicable) represent counterbalancing factors. The match itself serves as the resolution event—the final score will determine whether Japan advances or Tunisia produces an upset. Liquidity remains low across most contracts, suggesting limited trader participation and potential for probability shifts as the match approaches and new information emerges about team injuries, tactical changes, or pre-match conditions.

### Key factors

- Japan's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Tunisia's current standing and recent performance in qualifying or tournament play
- Betting volumes are minimal ($9 in 24-hour volume on the primary Tunisia vs. Japan contract), indicating limited market conviction and sensitivity to new information
- The spread between Japan at 57% and the runner-up at 28% suggests a meaningful but not dominant consensus, with roughly one-quarter of probability mass on alternative outcomes
- Tunisia's historical record against top-tier Asian opponents and Japan's performance in similar matchups over the past 12-24 months
- Match venue, weather conditions, injury status of key players, and any recent tactical or managerial changes announced closer to kickoff

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tunisia-vs-japan
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tunisia-vs-japan

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.