# Tunisia vs. Netherlands

> Netherlands leads at 71%, runner-up 26% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tunisia-vs-netherlands
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.921Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-25

## Headline

- Leader: Netherlands at 71%
- Runner-up: Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands) at 26%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 71¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-netherlands-netherlands-polymarket-0xa3150402afe114c762bcd2e5581dc4d0fe93560718640d8d490e0497350de5ad |
| Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands) | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-netherlands-draw-tunisia-vs-netherlands-polymarket-0x964314cfa3bbe2b74e99f1973135a7678ba86ad048116b1a9846a9fa8cde646f |
| Tunisia | 22¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tunisia-vs-netherlands-tunisia-polymarket-0xbb8523862374b3edc90cb813b125bd30e8e27030be53fcf40d1f76152339f8d0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Netherlands | Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands) | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | — | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-01 | 72 | 22 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 71 | 23 | 26 |
| 2026-05-03 | 72 | 22 | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 71 | 24 | 26 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 24 | 23 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Tunisia +3pp 25→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Tunisia −3pp 26→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Tunisia vs. Netherlands) +3pp 22→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Tunisia will defeat the Netherlands in an upcoming match, with current pricing suggesting roughly a 71% chance. The high confidence in Tunisia likely reflects recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage if applicable. Key factors driving this level include team strength assessments and recent performance metrics; movement would depend on injury reports, lineup changes, or updated win-loss data. The match itself will definitively resolve this uncertainty, with the outcome eliminating all other possibilities. However, the low trading volume across related contracts ($405 24h on the most active pair) suggests limited liquidity and potentially wider margins of error in price discovery.

### Key factors

- Tunisia's current odds price substantially higher than Netherlands despite historical uncertainty in similar matchups, suggesting market confidence in specific recent form or tactical advantages
- Trading volume concentrated in unrelated contracts (Netherlands vs. Japan variants), indicating limited direct market activity on the Tunisia-Netherlands outcome itself
- Home or away designation and weather conditions, if applicable, could shift probability significantly given the 71%-26% spread leaves limited room for rebalancing
- Recent head-to-head records between these teams and their performances in the last 3-6 months of official competitive matches
- Availability of key players confirmed in team rosters versus injury or suspension reports released before match day

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tunisia-vs-netherlands
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tunisia-vs-netherlands

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.