# Who will win the next Turkish presidential election

> Recep Tayyip Erdoğan leads at 50%, runner-up 10% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 51 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/turkeypres
Updated: 2026-07-11T03:20:49.890Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2030-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at 50%
- Runner-up: Ekrem İmamoğlu at 10%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-turkish-presidential-electio-kalshi-kxturkeypres-28-rerd |
| Ekrem İmamoğlu | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-turkish-presidential-electio-kalshi-kxturkeypres-28-eima |
| Ahmet Davutoğlu | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-turkish-presidential-electio-kalshi-kxturkeypres-28-adav |
| Mansur Yavaş | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-turkish-presidential-electio-kalshi-kxturkeypres-28-myav |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | Mansur Yavaş |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 51 | 2 |
| 2026-06-16 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 2 |
| 2026-06-25 | 51 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 3 |
| 2026-06-27 | 50 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 47% probability represents the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Turkey's next presidential election, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. The price reflects uncertainty about the timing and eligibility of Turkey's electoral cycle, as well as domestic political conditions. The main factors supporting this level are the incumbent's historical advantages in Turkish elections and current polling standing. Conversely, economic conditions, coalition dynamics, and opposition momentum could shift expectations downward. The most significant near-term catalyst will be the formal announcement of the election date by Turkey's electoral commission, followed by campaign developments and any shifts in polling data. Market prices also suggest material uncertainty about secondary candidates, with runner-up prices clustering between 11-18 cents, indicating genuine competitive dynamics rather than consensus around any single alternative.

### Key factors

- Turkish electoral law allows presidential contests every five years; the timing of the next election (whether held in 2028 or earlier) directly affects candidate eligibility and incumbent advantage
- Polling data on approval ratings and candidate preference among Turkish voters will shift market prices as new surveys are released
- Economic conditions in Turkey—inflation, currency stability, and growth—historically influence presidential approval and opposition support
- Coalition negotiations and opposition candidate selection will clarify the competitive field; formal endorsements or withdrawals materially affect individual candidate probabilities
- The incumbent's ability to modify electoral rules or extend terms (as precedent allows in Turkish politics) creates structural uncertainty about the baseline scenario

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/turkeypres
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=turkeypres
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.