# Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9M

> 1.2–1.5M leads at 39%, runner-up 34% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/turnout-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-0609m
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.812Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: 1.2–1.5M at 39%
- Runner-up: 0.9–1.2M at 34%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2–1.5M | 39¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-polymarket-0x19e84fccf0c3ec2b32b572e6bfd8fa7f916244ddf22e8379cba90a9c4a74e6e3 |
| 0.9–1.2M | 34¢ | +1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-polymarket-0xd9a6f07cc3b49337767c4120c61f79432e78852d914bf2a3fd1fa1b45993a567 |
| 1.5–1.8M | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-polymarket-0xe140cf821ab6959e8de268ff9f8c5c9b1dc651dcba892543dbbfe766c2ecc2ee |
| 0.6–0.9M | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-polymarket-0xadc9b1bd43e7d833bba87f84459c569c3d32e5f8b64ccfaecd1a3f76794955d0 |
| <0.6M | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/turnout-in-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-polymarket-0x65f35450a40e5287326f11ef99fbb637b0bf917ad3a597b0f68784c852bb298b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1.2–1.5M | 0.9–1.2M | 1.5–1.8M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 30 | — | 22 |
| 2026-04-10 | 28 | 23 | 21 |
| 2026-04-25 | 39 | 16 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 | 26 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 39 | 33 | 25 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 1.5–1.8M +14pp 18→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 1.5–1.8M −14pp 32→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · 0.6–0.9M +7pp 12→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · 1.2–1.5M −6pp 39→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 1.2–1.5M +6pp 33→39¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether total votes in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will fall between 600,000 and 900,000. At 7% probability, the market is pricing this outcome as unlikely. Texas primary runoff turnout depends on candidate enthusiasm and whether the race remains competitive through election day. The margin-of-victory contracts show active pricing around Paxton's performance, suggesting ongoing uncertainty about the race's competitiveness. The key driver is whether turnout matches or exceeds typical runoff participation rates in statewide Texas Republican primaries. The resolution will occur on the scheduled runoff election date when official vote totals are reported by the Texas Secretary of State.

### Key factors

- Historical Texas Republican runoff turnout rates and how 2026 compares to prior cycles like 2012, 2016, and 2022
- Candidate spending and ground-game intensity heading into the runoff, which directly affects voter mobilization
- Weather and external events on election day that could suppress or boost participation
- Polling showing the margin of victory, since competitive close races typically drive higher turnout than blowouts
- Early voting participation rates reported in the weeks before the runoff election

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/turnout-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-0609m
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=turnout-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-0609m
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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