# Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch — $500M

> $150M leads at 49%, runner-up 40% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:08.251Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $150M at 49%
- Runner-up: $100M at 40%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $377

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150M | 49¢ | +1pp | $35 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-150m-polymarket-0xbd014b80c8635b6ba1ab637133f3904ed16985b8ce04d03672dd82f30dcb2b84 |
| $100M | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x2d7cbc7a65a552fa25c6e833ad505527ba5b8ed1f93ad5cf2f24e31c4bb0de67 |
| $20M | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-20m-polymarket-0xd00db06d08f7aab4576e77387a073f6c12c01c730f9fca953d4adf18170220b3 |
| $300M | 35¢ | ±0 | $30 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xebd661433be3906325e403223a265b2a6ed020c5af4700bc410e3938b487f3a5 |
| $50M | 34¢ | ±0 | $54 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x0c1a200fb856464af5f01080e3d4b15808e7827f79e2f8c6645015548b7f94d5 |
| $80M | 26¢ | −2pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-80m-polymarket-0xc264b1845337924cbdba0f8a42920d2f1b8428e4e02d0c22a61df7a5899b26c1 |
| $800M | 22¢ | ±0 | $155 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-800m-polymarket-0x8e4f896a5857c1ab5d133f91da0412f3799b2db661514a90cae3f8f0db5e2556 |
| $700M | 14¢ | +1pp | $47 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0xacfd57e68e79142603095ca24a5226b9d7d1e7667793dbc1cfae171c6a1a047a |
| $1B | 12¢ | +1pp | $47 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x2cb749b7ee5e4c349a61acd98119e147ef9ca0a6f70d60b9ac9eb0f10b765aa2 |
| $500M | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x65791b55c71bf4314b7234f0406f052727201d521f68721d360563b3ac59a3a3 |
| $1.5B | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-15b-polymarket-0x12023291d3175b2565d082826ad954f58b0b8683fb772187e90cf701beccf31e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $150M | $100M | $20M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 38 | 43 | 35 |
| 2026-06-02 | 26 | 41 | 36 |
| 2026-06-03 | 20 | 45 | 43 |
| 2026-06-04 | 30 | 39 | 40 |
| 2026-06-05 | 45 | 38 | 40 |
| 2026-06-07 | 47 | 43 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · $80M −16pp 44→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · $700M +15pp 14→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · $150M +15pp 30→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · $700M −14pp 29→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · $150M −12pp 38→26¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 44% probability that Tuyo will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $500M within one day of its launch. The probability reflects uncertainty about initial market demand and investor appetite for the project. Key drivers include the size of the token allocation available at launch, comparable valuations of recent similar projects, and early investor commitments. The primary resolution event is Tuyo's official launch date, when FDV becomes calculable from trading activity and market prices. Current market odds suggest participants view a $500M valuation as somewhat more likely than not to be missed initially, with lower price thresholds ($50M-$100M) showing higher probabilities and higher thresholds ($1B-$1.5B) showing correspondingly lower ones.

### Key factors

- Market cap calculation on day one depends on circulating supply at launch and opening trading prices across exchanges
- Comparable recent token launches show high variance in initial FDV outcomes, from $100M to $5B+, making prediction difficult
- Contractual terms—vesting schedules, allocation sizes, and lockup periods—directly determine how much supply reaches market on day one
- Initial exchange listings (CEX vs. DEX, geographic reach, trading pairs) affect price discovery and FDV estimation methods
- Pre-launch investor commitments and announced allocations provide floor estimates but do not guarantee actual day-one trading volumes or prices

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.