# When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released

> Before Jan 2028 leads at 71%, runner-up 20% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvseasonreleasethelastofus
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:51.376Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 2028 at 71%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 2027 at 20%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $481

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 2028 | 71¢ | ±0 | $6 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-28-jan |
| Before Jul 2027 | 20¢ | +3pp | $472 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-27-jul |
| Before Apr 2027 | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-27-apr |
| Before Jan 2027 | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-27-jan |
| Before Oct 2026 | 5¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-the-last-of-us-season-3-be-released-befo-kalshi-kxtvseasonreleasethelastofus-26-oct |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 2028 | Before Jul 2027 | Before Apr 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 73 | 30 | 23 |
| 2026-04-19 | — | 26 | — |
| 2026-04-20 | — | 26 | 23 |
| 2026-04-22 | 75 | 23 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 20 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | — | — | 13 |
| 2026-04-28 | 72 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 71 | 19 | 14 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Before Jul 2027 −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Before Jan 2027 −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Before Apr 2027 −4pp 17→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Before Jul 2027 +3pp 16→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Before Jan 2027 +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a 70% probability that The Last of Us Season 3 will be released by January 28, 2027. The current probability is driven primarily by HBO's production timeline and the show's successful completion of previous seasons, though exact renewal and greenlight decisions from the network significantly influence the forecast. The main uncertainty catalyst is any official HBO announcement regarding Season 3 production status, greenlight approval, or premiere date confirmation—which typically occurs during industry announcements or earnings calls. Contract pricing suggests meaningful doubt remains, with a 30% probability assigned to delays or non-release by the deadline, reflecting typical production risks including post-production schedules, talent availability, and network strategic decisions around release pacing.

### Key factors

- HBO's stated production pipeline and whether Season 3 has received formal greenlight status as of May 2026
- Historical production-to-premiere timelines for The Last of Us (Season 1-2 release intervals and post-production duration)
- Any publicly announced premiere date or production delays reported by HBO, which would directly impact January 28, 2027 feasibility
- Competing HBO release priorities and network slate decisions that could shift Season 3's scheduled release window
- Industry labor agreements and post-production capacity constraints that could extend the typical production-to-air timeline beyond the contract deadline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvseasonreleasethelastofus
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tvseasonreleasethelastofus

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.