# Will Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total Season Views on Luminate during April 24 - April 30, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 15 contracts — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvshow
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:21:01.325Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 18% — 11pp spread
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 13 | 56¢ | +4pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-13 |
| Above 14 | 13¢ | −3pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-14 |
| Above 12 | 77¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-12 |
| Los Angeles D | 35¢ | −18pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-d-have-the-best-record-in-pro-bas-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-lad |
| Above 10 | 93¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-10 |
| Season 3?: Rue Bennett | 18¢ | +3pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-die-in-euphoria-season-3-rue-bennett-polymarket-0x30b8e5f4f3670e9be29c36be3826cbdf86e24b4e71ad7c752bf1f3a072d6da03 |
| New York Y | 14¢ | ±0 | $849 | kalshi | /markets/will-new-york-y-have-the-best-record-in-pro-baseba-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-nyy |
| NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes | 23¢ | −1pp | $657 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-unemployment-rate-exceeds-10-mo-kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01 |
| St. Louis | 4¢ | −2pp | $511 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-basebal-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-stl |
| Target Streams: 236,885,880 | 12¢ | +4pp | $504 | kalshi | /markets/will-billie-eilish-have-above-236885880-streams-on-kalshi-kxartiststreamsu-beilish26may07-236.9m |
| Above 15 | 4¢ | ±0 | $478 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26may-15 |
| Chicago WS | 6¢ | ±0 | $413 | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-ws-have-the-worst-record-in-pro-baseb-kalshi-kxmlbworstrecord-26-cws |
| Atlanta | 17¢ | +5pp | $244 | kalshi | /markets/will-atlanta-have-the-best-record-in-pro-baseball-kalshi-kxmlbbestrecord-26-atl |
| Above 160 | 38¢ | −4pp | $171 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-launches-will-spacex-have-in-2026-above-1-kalshi-kxspacexcount-26b-160 |
| Above 800K | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-have-above-800000-album-equivalent-unit-kalshi-kxalbumequiv-ice26may21-800k |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 21 |
| 2026-04-19 | 31 |
| 2026-04-26 | 28 |
| 2026-05-03 | 32 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Season 3?: Rue Bennett −19pp 59→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Los Angeles D −18pp 46→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Season 3?: Rue Bennett −17pp 34→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Chicago WS +15pp 8→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Chicago WS −11pp 19→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvshow
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tvshow

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.