# Which shows will be cancelled this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 6 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvshowscancelled
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.111Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Kimmel Live! | 25¢ | −2pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-jimmy-kimmel-live-be-canceled-jimmy-kimmel-li-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-jim |
| The View | 23¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/which-shows-will-be-cancelled-this-year-the-view-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-vie |
| South Park | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-shows-will-be-cancelled-this-year-south-park-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-sou |
| The Daily Show | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-shows-will-be-cancelled-this-year-the-daily-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-dai |
| Late Night With Seth Meyers | 24¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-shows-will-be-cancelled-this-year-late-night-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-lat |
| The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/which-shows-will-be-cancelled-this-year-the-tonigh-kalshi-kxtvshowscancelled-27-ton |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 |
| 2026-04-25 | 24 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 |
| 2026-05-09 | 24 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 24% probability reflects market expectations that "Late Night with Seth Meyers" will be cancelled during 2026, based on current contract pricing across Kalshi. This represents a roughly one-in-four chance according to traders. The probability is driven primarily by NBC's programming decisions and the show's viewership metrics relative to network priorities. Secondary factors include broader late-night industry consolidation and advertiser demand for the time slot. The main catalyst for resolution will be NBC's official renewal or cancellation announcement, typically occurring during upfront season (May-June) when networks finalize fall schedules. Current trading volume is light ($10 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited consensus conviction among traders monitoring this outcome.

### Key factors

- NBC's May-June 2026 upfront presentation will likely include explicit renewal or cancellation decisions for fall programming
- Recent late-night ratings trends and advertiser demand for the 11:35pm slot will influence network cost-benefit analysis
- Seth Meyers' contract renewal status and negotiation outcomes directly determine whether the show can continue
- Competitive pressure from other networks' late-night offerings and streaming alternatives affects traditional broadcast renewals
- Historical precedent shows NBC has cancelled late-night shows before (e.g., "Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" is not cancelled, but the show type has been discontinued at other networks)

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tvshowscancelled
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tvshowscancelled

## License

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