# TX-18 Democratic Primary Winner

> Christian Menefee leads at 92%, runner-up 9% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx18-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.740Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Christian Menefee at 92%
- Runner-up: Al Green at 9%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Menefee | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tx-18-democratic-primary-winner-christian-menefee-polymarket-0xf7761446d1d53214e6269534c17cc86cd071092ecc7a425cb1f7d2a59df45a23 |
| Al Green | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tx-18-democratic-primary-winner-al-green-polymarket-0xfea9af7b8e686f0405d0c43ec5fdfadf92900e36ceafc6fa78343622be08c559 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Christian Menefee | Al Green |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 59 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 89 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | 83 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 91 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | 92 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Al Green −14pp 25→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Al Green +8pp 17→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Christian Menefee +4pp 83→87¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Christian Menefee +4pp 87→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Al Green −3pp 20→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win the Texas 18th Congressional District Democratic primary. At 86%, the market is pricing in a substantial but not overwhelming likelihood for the frontrunner, leaving meaningful space for alternative outcomes. The current level likely reflects available polling data, candidate funding, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district. Primary dynamics could shift if a trailing candidate gains ground through field operations, media coverage changes perceptions of electability, or voter preferences consolidate differently than current signals suggest. The primary election date itself will be the definitive catalyst, settling all uncertainty about the actual winner. Until then, any significant polling movement, fundraising announcements, or endorsement shifts would most directly influence this probability.

### Key factors

- Polling trends in TX-18 among registered Democratic voters in the weeks leading to the primary election
- Relative fundraising and cash-on-hand positions between the frontrunner and trailing candidates
- Endorsement patterns from local elected officials, party organizations, and prominent figures in the district
- Voter turnout composition in the district relative to historical Democratic primary participation rates
- Campaign event activity and media coverage intensity in the final weeks before the primary vote

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx18-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tx18-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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