# TX-30 Republican Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx30-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Leader: Everett Jackson at 85%
- Runner-up: Sholdon Daniels at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $474

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Jackson | 85¢ | +8pp | $46 | polymarket | /markets/tx-30-republican-primary-winner-everett-jackson-polymarket-0x4ac1ad498fa8e583054cbdb8ce8390648ee8584fa048e07de45f46279527fded |
| Sholdon Daniels | 13¢ | −6pp | $428 | polymarket | /markets/tx-30-republican-primary-winner-sholdon-daniels-polymarket-0xce2dc1bcbca8c4d96a02f4c3d084c675190700d27c913cb7dad31e3759ce2f72 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Everett Jackson | Sholdon Daniels |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 84 | 12 |
| 2026-05-25 | 76 | 14 |
| 2026-05-27 | 92 | 8 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The current 86% probability indicates markets assess a specific candidate as heavily favored to win the TX-30 Republican primary, with roughly one-in-seven odds assigned to the runner-up. This level reflects available polling data, candidate funding, endorsements, and organizational strength in the district. The probability could shift based on new survey releases, campaign developments such as endorsements from major figures, or media events affecting candidate viability. The primary election itself—scheduled for the date of Texas's next general election cycle—serves as the ultimate resolution point. Between now and voting, shifts in fundraising reports (which become public on predictable schedules) and any debate performances or scandals would likely move markets, though the wide gap suggests the leading candidate faces a high bar to lose.

### Key factors

- Recent internal or public polling showing the leader's margin in TX-30 compared to the runner-up
- Candidate cash-on-hand and fundraising trajectory relative to competitors
- Endorsements from Texas Republican establishment figures or national political actors
- Any notable gaffes, scandals, or media coverage affecting candidate perception in the district
- Voter turnout expectations and demographic composition of likely primary voters

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx30-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tx30-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.