# TX-38 Republican Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx38-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-26

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $49

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett McNabb | 3¢ | +1pp | $49 | polymarket | /markets/tx-38-republican-primary-winner-barrett-mcnabb-polymarket-0xdbd2247a5001c240baec81478dddc36140ba43ede7f7490c6a0a1fb7d5df3b23 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 3 |
| 2026-05-24 | 1 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Republican primary for Texas's 38th Congressional District. The 95% price suggests a heavily favored frontrunner with substantial structural advantages or polling leads, while the 5% allocated to alternatives indicates some residual uncertainty. Primary probabilities of this magnitude typically reflect either frontrunner advantages from fundraising, endorsements, or polling, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of primary turnout and late-breaking campaign events. The primary election itself—scheduled for a date voters can verify through Texas election records—serves as the hard resolution point. Between now and voting day, shifts in this probability would likely track candidate spending data, field poll releases, endorsement announcements, or turnout indicators specific to the district.

### Key factors

- Current polling or publicly available vote intention data in TX-38, which would need to substantially shift to justify significant probability movements
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand disparities between the frontrunner and alternatives, as measurable through FEC filings
- Local or district-specific endorsements from party establishment figures, which historically correlate with primary performance
- Voter turnout expectations for the specific primary date, since low-turnout scenarios can increase uncertainty around frontrunner performance
- Any disqualifying events affecting the frontrunner's candidacy or viability between the current date and election day

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tx38-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tx38-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.