# Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas

> 10 leads at 25%, runner-up 19% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txhousedemseats
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.124Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Leader: 10 at 25%
- Runner-up: 11 at 19%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-10-seats-in-2026-us-hou-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-e10 |
| 11 | 19¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-11-seats-in-2026-us-hou-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-e11 |
| 12 | 13¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-12-seats-in-2026-us-hou-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-e12 |
| 9 | 8¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-9-seats-in-2026-us-hous-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-e9 |
| 14 and above | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-at-least-14-seats-in-2026-us-ho-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-a13 |
| 8 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-democrats-win-exactly-8-seats-in-2026-us-hous-kalshi-kxtxhousedemseats-26nov03-e8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | — | 19 | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 24 | — | 13 |
| 2026-04-23 | 25 | — | 15 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 21 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 | — | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 26% probability that Democrats will win exactly 8 seats in Texas's 2026 House elections. Texas has 36 House seats total, and Democrats' performance depends heavily on turnout dynamics, suburban district competitiveness, and national political environment. The probability is relatively modest because Democrats capturing exactly 8 seats represents a narrow outcome—they could win fewer seats in a GOP wave or more seats in a favorable environment. The 2026 midterm election on November 5, 2026, will resolve this contract. Current factors include redistricting impacts from 2022, the performance of specific suburban districts (particularly around Houston, Dallas, and Austin), and whether Democrats can maintain 2022 gains.

### Key factors

- Texas had 13 Democratic House members elected in 2022; winning exactly 8 would represent a significant loss from that baseline
- Suburban districts in major metros (Harris County, Tarrant County, Dallas County) show swing dynamics that determine whether Democrats stay above or fall below 8 seats
- National midterm environment in 2026 will affect turnout and candidate recruitment, with historical patterns showing midterms typically favor the party opposing the sitting president
- Redistricting and demographic changes since 2022 altered district competitiveness; some previously lean-R districts may have become more competitive
- Early special election results and 2024 presidential performance in Texas House districts will provide indicators of the electoral environment heading into November 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txhousedemseats
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=txhousedemseats
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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