# Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txprimary
Updated: 2026-06-12T19:20:51.366Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Davis | 6¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-richard-davis-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxtxprimary-14d26-rdav |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 82 |
| 2026-06-01 | 14 |
| 2026-06-10 | 6 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · Richard Davis +5pp 1→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the implied probability that Richard Davis will secure the Democratic nomination for Texas's 14th congressional district. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds, reflecting uncertainty about the primary's outcome. The probability is likely driven by Davis's existing profile and campaign infrastructure relative to potential challengers, as well as district demographics and recent electoral trends. The nomination will be determined by primary results, expected to occur during Texas's primary election cycle. Key factors that could move this probability include changes in candidate fundraising, endorsements from party figures, polling shifts, and challenger entry or exit from the race. Local turnout patterns and any shifts in district composition would also influence the final outcome.

### Key factors

- Primary election results and timing will directly determine the nomination, with participation rates and vote distribution among competing candidates being measurable factors
- Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to primary opponents indicate organizational capacity and will be publicly disclosed
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures, local elected officials, and organizations in TX-14 demonstrably affect primary electability
- Recent polling data comparing Davis to other potential Democratic primary candidates would show relative standing among likely voters
- Registered Democrat growth or demographic shifts within TX-14 between now and the primary could alter the electorate composition and candidate viability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txprimary
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=txprimary
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.