# Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 5% and 10%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txrsenrunoffmov
Updated: 2026-06-13T19:21:11.942Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-05-26

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $588K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton, 20%+ | 97¢ | +1pp | $588K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxton-in-the-2-kalshi-kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26-kpax-p60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 6 |
| 2026-06-03 | 98 |
| 2026-06-08 | 99 |
| 2026-06-11 | 100 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Ken Paxton will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff by a margin between 5% and 10%. At 29%, this outcome ranks slightly below the 0-5% margin scenario (also 29%), indicating uncertainty about whether Paxton's victory will be narrowly decisive or moderately comfortable. The probability is shaped by primary election results and Paxton's incumbency status, weighed against potential challenger strength and turnout dynamics in a runoff setting. The Texas primary election scheduled for early March 2026 will be the critical juncture determining whether a runoff occurs and what candidate configurations materialize. Resolution depends on the final vote count in the general election and subsequent runoff if needed, with margins sensitive to voter mobilization, demographic shifts, and any intervening political developments affecting Paxton's standing among Republican primary voters.

### Key factors

- Ken Paxton's 2022 general election performance and polling trends in Texas Republican primaries establish baseline expectations for his electoral strength
- Runoff dynamics typically produce different turnout and voting patterns than primary elections, affecting margin predictions by potentially shifting which candidate demographics participate at higher rates
- The identity and political positioning of Paxton's primary opponent(s) directly influences runoff feasibility and competitive intensity, with weaker challengers producing larger margins
- Statewide political environment in Texas for 2026 midterm cycle, including gubernatorial race dynamics and national GOP momentum, creates contextual factors affecting Senate race margins
- The 5-10% margin band sits between tighter (0-5%) and comfortable (10%+) victory scenarios, making it sensitive to relatively small swings in voter behavior or turnout assumptions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/txrsenrunoffmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=txrsenrunoffmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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