# Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in April

> Above 3.7% leads at 92%, runner-up 92% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/u3
Updated: 2026-06-24T07:20:50.196Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-04

## Headline

- Leader: Above 3.7% at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 3.7% at 92%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: Above 4.2%

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 3.7% | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-37-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t3.7 |
| Above 3.7% | 92¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-37-in-octo-kalshi-kxu3-26oct-t3.7 |
| Above 3.8% | 90¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-38-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t3.8 |
| Above 4.1% | 89¢ | −1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-41-in-june-kalshi-kxu3-26jun-t4.1 |
| Above 3.9% | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-39-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t3.9 |
| Above 4.0% | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-40-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.0 |
| Above 4.1% | 66¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-41-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.1 |
| Above 4.2% | 59¢ | −1pp | $595 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-42-in-june-kalshi-kxu3-26jun-t4.2 |
| Above 4.2% | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-42-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.2 |
| Above 4.3% | 40¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-43-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.3 |
| Above 4.3% | 28¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-43-in-june-kalshi-kxu3-26jun-t4.3 |
| Above 4.4% | 28¢ | +1pp | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-44-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.4 |
| Above 4.5% | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-45-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.5 |
| Above 4.6% | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-46-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.6 |
| Above 4.4% | 7¢ | −1pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-44-in-june-kalshi-kxu3-26jun-t4.4 |
| Above 4.7% | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-47-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.7 |
| Above 4.8% | 3¢ | −16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-above-48-in-nove-kalshi-kxu3-26nov-t4.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 3.7% | Above 3.7% | Above 3.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | — | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 74 | — | 71 |
| 2026-06-12 | 96 | — | 88 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 90 |
| 2026-06-18 | 92 | 96 | — |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 97 | — |
| 2026-06-20 | — | 92 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 92 | — | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Above 3.7% −5pp 97→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-18 · Above 3.7% −4pp 96→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Above 4.1% −4pp 67→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Above 4.1% +4pp 63→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 4.3% −3pp 34→31¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 97% probability that the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) will exceed 4.0% when April 2026 data is released. The current assessment reflects labor market softening observed in recent months, with traders pricing in persistent weakness above this threshold. The probability is driven primarily by recent employment trends and Fed policy trajectory; it could shift downward if job growth accelerates unexpectedly or upward if layoffs intensify. The resolution hinges on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official April 2026 unemployment report, typically released in early May 2026, which reports the exact U-3 rate for that month. Market pricing suggests traders view a sub-4.0% rate as unlikely given current economic conditions, though the 29¢ contract on unemployment above 4.3% indicates some hedging against more severe labor market deterioration.

### Key factors

- April 2026 official U-3 unemployment rate from BLS will determine settlement; currently must exceed 4.0% to resolve YES
- Recent U.S. labor market data through early 2026 shows job growth moderation and initial jobless claims trends
- Federal Reserve policy stance and interest rate expectations influence employer hiring decisions and layoff rates
- Related contract pricing suggests 29% probability of unemployment exceeding 4.3%, indicating market uncertainty about severity level
- Seasonal adjustments and methodological consistency in BLS reporting methodology will apply to final data release

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/u3
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=u3
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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