# Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 41 million passengers in Q1 2026

> Above 45 million leads at 85%, runner-up 74% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ual
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:52.737Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-14

## Headline

- Leader: Above 45 million at 85%
- Runner-up: Above 45.5 million at 74%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $38

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 45 million | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-45-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-45000000.0 |
| Above 45.5 million | 74¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-455-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-45500000.0 |
| Above 46 million | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-46-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-46000000.0 |
| Above 46.5 million | 60¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-465-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-46500000.0 |
| Above 47 million | 44¢ | +1pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-47-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-47000000.0 |
| Above 47.5 million | 33¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-475-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-47500000.0 |
| Above 48 million | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-48-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-48000000.0 |
| Above 48.5 million | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-485-kalshi-kxual-26julpax-48500000.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 45 million | Above 45.5 million | Above 46 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 74 | 60 | 52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 80 | 72 | 64 |
| 2026-04-25 | 85 | 77 | 72 |
| 2026-04-27 | 84 | 75 | 68 |
| 2026-05-02 | 85 | 74 | 67 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Above 47.5 million +10pp 32→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Above 47 million −8pp 54→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Above 46.5 million +8pp 58→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-26 · Above 47 million +7pp 47→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Above 47.5 million −7pp 42→35¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ual
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ual

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.