# Will United Airlines Holdings Inc. report Above 178 million passengers flown in 2026

> Above 180 million leads at 95%, runner-up 94% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 32 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uala
Updated: 2026-06-29T03:20:50.891Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 180 million at 95%
- Runner-up: Above 178 million at 94%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180 million | 95¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-180-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-180000000 |
| Above 178 million | 94¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-178-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-178000000 |
| Above 182 million | 89¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-182-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-182000000 |
| Above 184 million | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-184-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-184000000 |
| Above 186 million | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-186-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-186000000 |
| Above 188 million | 27¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-188-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-188000000 |
| Above 190 million | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-united-airlines-holdings-inc-report-above-190-kalshi-kxuala-28janpax-190000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 180 million | Above 178 million | Above 182 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 87 | 89 | 81 |
| 2026-06-10 | 90 | 92 | 84 |
| 2026-06-11 | 95 | 96 | — |
| 2026-06-12 | 95 | — | — |
| 2026-06-15 | — | 95 | — |
| 2026-06-22 | — | 94 | 85 |
| 2026-06-27 | — | 95 | 88 |
| 2026-06-28 | — | 94 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Above 184 million +5pp 74→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Above 184 million −4pp 79→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 182 million +3pp 87→90¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 184 million +3pp 71→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an 89% chance that United Airlines will carry more than 178 million passengers in 2026. This threshold sits slightly below United's 2019 peak of 180 million passengers, suggesting traders expect the airline to recover to near pre-pandemic levels by year-end. The high probability reflects post-pandemic demand recovery and United's operational capacity, though airlines remain sensitive to fuel prices, economic recession, and capacity adjustments. The contract probability declines as thresholds rise—87% for 180 million, 82% for 182 million—indicating declining confidence in stronger-than-baseline performance. Resolution depends on United's official 2026 passenger report, typically published in January or February 2027 alongside annual earnings.

### Key factors

- United carried 180 million passengers in 2019; 178 million represents 99% of that pre-pandemic peak
- Current year-to-date passenger trends and load factors through Q2 2026 determine achievability
- Fuel price environment, macroeconomic growth, and domestic/international demand mix affect airline capacity decisions
- Probability gradient (89% at 178M, 55% at 186M) suggests market uncertainty above 180 million passengers
- Actual resolution waits for United's official 2026 annual passenger report in early 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uala
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uala

## License

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