# Atletico vs Arsenal

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 27% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ucl1h
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.385Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 27% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K
- Resolved: First Half Winner?: PSG

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 25¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-psg-win-the-1st-half-psg-kalshi-kxucl1h-26may30psgars-psg |
| Arsenal | 20¢ | — | $411 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-win-the-1st-half-arsenal-kalshi-kxucl1h-26may30psgars-ars |
| Tie | 37¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-tie-win-the-1st-half-tie-kalshi-kxucl1h-26may30psgars-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 25 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ucl1h
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ucl1h

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.