# Over 0.5 1H goals scored

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ucl1htotal
Updated: 2026-05-07T18:50:43.830Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $90K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 1H goals scored | 30¢ | — | $53K | kalshi | /markets/over-15-1h-goals-scored-over-15-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxucl1htotal-26may06bmupsg-1 |
| Over 2.5 1H goals scored | 10¢ | — | $37K | kalshi | /markets/over-25-1h-goals-scored-over-25-1h-goals-scored-kalshi-kxucl1htotal-26may06bmupsg-2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 38 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market measures the likelihood that at least one goal will be scored in the first half of a soccer match. At 46%, the probability reflects a near coin-flip assessment of offensive production in early play. First-half goal frequency depends primarily on team attacking quality, defensive organization, and whether either side needs early pace to meet tactical objectives. The contrast with the Over 1.5 markets (55% probability) suggests traders view single-goal outcomes as plausible but multiple goals in 45 minutes as relatively unlikely. The match fixture itself—involving specific teams, competition level, and recent form—represents the critical catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Historical first-half scoring rates and team-specific tendencies typically range from 35-55% probability of at least one goal, making the current level broadly consistent with competitive regular-season or cup play.

### Key factors

- Average first-half goals per match in the relevant competition and recent season statistics
- Combined expected goals (xG) for both teams in the first 45 minutes based on current offensive and defensive metrics
- Motivation and tactical approach—teams pressing early or protecting leads will affect scoring likelihood differently
- Recent head-to-head history and first-half scoring patterns between these specific opponents
- Match venue and conditions, as home teams sometimes generate more attacking pressure early

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ucl1htotal
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ucl1htotal

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.