# Bayern Munich at PSG

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclbtts
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.012Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $460
- Resolved: yes

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both Teams To Score | 57¢ | +4pp | $460 | kalshi | /markets/will-both-teams-score-both-teams-to-score-kalshi-kxuclbtts-26may30psgars-btts |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 51 |
| 2026-05-08 | 55 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Both Teams To Score +4pp 51→55¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Bayern Munich is trading at 78% to win their matchup against PSG in an upcoming Champions League fixture. This probability reflects Bayern's historical strength in European competition and their recent form, balanced against PSG's attacking talent and home-field advantage. The odds would shift upward if Bayern demonstrates superior midfield control or defensive organization in pre-match preparation, and downward if key Bayern players are sidelined by injury or PSG shows strong tactical cohesion in warm-up matches. The match result will provide definitive resolution to this uncertainty, with team lineups and final odds adjustments in the 24 hours before kickoff serving as the most significant leading indicators.

### Key factors

- Bayern Munich's Champions League performance record over the past three seasons compared to PSG's win rate in knockout stages at home
- Availability of key players for both teams, particularly Bayern's attacking depth and PSG's defensive midfield options
- Head-to-head historical results between these clubs, including goal differential and tactical patterns
- Current league form and recent injury reports for both squads leading up to the fixture
- Betting volume concentration and line movement across different markets, which may indicate informed positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclbtts
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uclbtts

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.