# UCL Finals Qualifiers

> Closed. Final outcome: PSG. Last odds frozen 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclfinalist
Updated: 2026-05-07T18:50:43.830Z
Category: general
Status: resolved
Closes: 2026-05-07

## Headline

- Leader: PSG at 80%
- Runner-up: Bayern Munich at 19%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $67K
- Resolved: PSG

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 80¢ | +15pp | $22K | kalshi | /markets/ucl-finals-qualifiers-psg-kalshi-kxuclfinalist-26-psg |
| Bayern Munich | 19¢ | −14pp | $45K | kalshi | /markets/ucl-finals-qualifiers-bayern-munich-kalshi-kxuclfinalist-26-bmu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | PSG | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 40 | 53 |
| 2026-04-24 | 43 | 54 |
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 50 | 49 |
| 2026-05-03 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-06 | 66 | 35 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · PSG +15pp 51→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Bayern Munich −14pp 49→35¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Arsenal will qualify for the UEFA Champions League Finals (the championship match) rather than PSG, Bayern Munich, or Atlético Madrid. The 69% reflects Arsenal's current standing in their UCL campaign, likely driven by their progression in the tournament and perceived strength relative to competitors. The main factors supporting this level are Arsenal's recent form and knockout-stage performance; downward pressure could come from injuries, fixture congestion, or opponent strength. Resolution depends on the outcome of Arsenal's remaining UCL matches leading to the Finals, with knockout draws and results in April-June 2026 serving as the primary catalyst.

### Key factors

- Arsenal's current knockout-stage position and remaining opponent difficulty in the UCL bracket
- Head-to-head recent form and goal differential between Arsenal and the three competing clubs (PSG, Bayern, Atlético)
- Injury status and squad depth availability for Arsenal compared to rivals during the decisive fixture windows
- Trading volume concentration: PSG at $5,614 24h volume vs Arsenal at $738, indicating PSG market participants may see higher relative value
- The contract is winner-take-all across four outcomes, so Arsenal's 69¢ pricing reflects comparative probability against exactly three alternatives, not an independent assessment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclfinalist
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uclfinalist

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.