# Will Michael Olise lead Champions League in assists for the 2026-27 season

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 16 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclleader
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:49.400Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-06-13

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Cherki | 10¢ | — | $752 | kalshi | /markets/will-rayan-cherki-lead-champions-league-in-assists-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-rcherk10 |
| Michael Olise | 6¢ | −9pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-olise-lead-champions-league-in-assist-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-molise17 |
| Kylian Mbappe | 17¢ | +1pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-kylian-mbappe-lead-champions-league-in-goals-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-kmbapp10 |
| Erling Haaland | 16¢ | −1pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-erling-haaland-lead-champions-league-in-goals-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-ehaala9 |
| Lamine Yamal | 10¢ | −2pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-lead-champions-league-in-assists-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-lyamal10 |
| Harry Kane | 9¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-harry-kane-lead-champions-league-in-goals-for-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-hkane9 |
| Raphinha | 13¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-raphinha-lead-champions-league-in-goals-for-t-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-raph11 |
| Bruno Fernandes | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-fernandes-lead-champions-league-in-assi-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-bferna8 |
| Fermin Lopez | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fermin-lopez-lead-champions-league-in-assists-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-flopez16 |
| Jude Bellingham | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jude-bellingham-lead-champions-league-in-assi-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-jbelli5 |
| Pedri | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-pedri-lead-champions-league-in-assists-for-th-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-pedr8 |
| Raphinha | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raphinha-lead-champions-league-in-assists-for-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-raph11 |
| Vinicius Junior | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-vinicius-junior-lead-champions-league-in-assi-kalshi-kxuclleader-27ast-vini7 |
| Ferran Torres | 11¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ferran-torres-lead-champions-league-in-goals-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-ftorre7 |
| Lamine Yamal | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lamine-yamal-lead-champions-league-in-goals-f-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-lyamal10 |
| Michael Olise | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-olise-lead-champions-league-in-goals-kalshi-kxuclleader-27goal-molise17 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | 13 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-19 · Lamine Yamal −7pp 10→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Raphinha +3pp 11→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 15% chance that Michael Olise will record the most assists in the UEFA Champions League during the 2026-27 season. The relatively modest probability reflects the competitive field—assist leaders typically emerge from top clubs with consistent playing time and attacking opportunities, categories in which Olise competes alongside numerous established playmakers. The primary factors influencing this probability are Olise's club assignment and role within that team's system, particularly whether he plays in a creative midfield or wing position that accumulates assists. The season's outcome will resolve only after all group stage and knockout matches conclude in June 2027, though trajectory will become clearer after the winter transfer window and mid-season performance data emerge. Current contract values and trading volume suggest moderate market interest, with limited liquidity indicating uncertainty among participants about baseline expectations for the 2026-27 season.

### Key factors

- Olise's employer and assigned position at the start of the 2026-27 season—assist totals correlate strongly with team quality and tactical role
- Playing time consistency—a 15% probability implies Olise must be a regular starter for a top-six European club to accumulate competitive assist numbers
- Comparison pool size—Olise competes against Mbappe (13¢), Raphinha (10¢), and dozens of other established playmakers from elite teams across all participating leagues
- Historical assist distribution—Champions League assists typically concentrate among 5-10 players per season, reducing baseline probability for any individual outside the consensus elite tier
- Injury risk and squad competition—any significant absence or loss of starting status during the 38-match campaign would materially reduce assist accumulation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclleader
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uclleader

## License

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