# Will Arsenal qualify for the Champions League Semifinals

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 14 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclround
Updated: 2026-09-25T10:20:51.514Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-20

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $259

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 31¢ | +1pp | $121 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-qualify-for-the-champions-league-fi-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-bar |
| PSG | 56¢ | +5pp | $59 | kalshi | /markets/will-psg-qualify-for-the-champions-league-round-of-kalshi-kxuclround-27ro16-psg |
| Arsenal | 27¢ | −2pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-qualify-for-the-champions-league-fina-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-ars |
| Manchester City | 22¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchester-city-qualify-for-the-champions-lea-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-mci |
| PSG | 40¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-psg-qualify-for-the-champions-league-semifina-kalshi-kxuclround-27semi-psg |
| Real Madrid | 34¢ | −18pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-qualify-for-the-champions-league-kalshi-kxuclround-27semi-rma |
| Barcelona | 39¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-qualify-for-the-champions-league-se-kalshi-kxuclround-27semi-bar |
| Bayern Munich | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bayern-munich-qualify-for-the-champions-leagu-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-bmu |
| PSG | 27¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-psg-qualify-for-the-champions-league-final-ps-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-psg |
| Real Madrid | 22¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-madrid-qualify-for-the-champions-league-kalshi-kxuclround-27final-rma |
| Arsenal | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-arsenal-qualify-for-the-champions-league-quar-kalshi-kxuclround-27quar-ars |
| Atletico | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-atletico-qualify-for-the-champions-league-qua-kalshi-kxuclround-27quar-atm |
| Barcelona | 19¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-qualify-for-the-champions-league-qu-kalshi-kxuclround-27quar-bar |
| Bayern Munich | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bayern-munich-qualify-for-the-champions-leagu-kalshi-kxuclround-27quar-bmu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | 32 |
| 2026-09-18 | 28 |
| 2026-09-25 | 20 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Barcelona +62pp 4→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Barcelona −60pp 66→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Real Madrid −18pp 52→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Real Madrid +17pp 35→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · PSG +7pp 35→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 39% probability reflects the market's assessment that Arsenal will advance past the Champions League quarterfinals to reach the semifinals. The prediction sits roughly in line with other top-tier clubs, suggesting modest confidence in their progression. Arsenal's qualification odds depend primarily on their opponent draw, current squad depth compared to other elite European sides, and their performance in knockout matches where fine margins determine advancement. The UEFA Champions League round-of-16 draw and subsequent fixture scheduling will be the key event that clarifies Arsenal's path—stronger opponents significantly lower progression chances, while favorable matchups could shift the probability notably higher. Historical knockout-stage performance, injury status of key players heading into spring fixtures, and their domestic league position affecting overall squad fatigue will all influence final outcomes.

### Key factors

- Arsenal's opponent in the round-of-16 draw will materially affect their semifinal odds, with top-seeded teams like Real Madrid or PSG creating steeper paths than other qualified teams
- Head-to-head record and tactical matchups against potential opponents carry predictive value for knockout-stage advancement beyond general team strength rankings
- Squad injury status and player availability during the critical February-May Champions League period, particularly in defense and attack, directly impacts match outcomes
- Arsenal's domestic league performance and fixture congestion in concurrent Premier League matches can affect rest and form entering knockout stages
- Historical penalty shootout record and clutch performance metrics in previous knockout rounds provide evidence of how teams handle elimination-stage pressure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclround
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uclround

## License

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