# Will Arsenal win the Women's Champions League

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 2 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclw
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.194Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-06

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 6¢ | −8pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-lyon-win-the-womens-champions-league-lyon-kalshi-kxuclw-26-ol |
| Barcelona | 54¢ | −11pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-barcelona-win-the-womens-champions-league-bar-kalshi-kxuclw-26-bar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 18 |
| 2026-04-25 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 22 |
| 2026-05-09 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Barcelona +33pp 36→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Barcelona −11pp 65→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Barcelona −9pp 74→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Lyon −8pp 14→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Lyon +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates the market's assessment that Arsenal has roughly a 1-in-4 chance of winning the 2025-26 UEFA Women's Champions League. The current 23% reflects Arsenal's competitive standing in European women's football, balanced against strong competition from teams like Barcelona, Lyon, and others in the tournament. The probability would adjust based on Arsenal's performance in the group stage and knockout rounds as the competition progresses. The main catalyst is the Champions League itself—with matches beginning in autumn 2025 and the final scheduled for June 2026, each result will provide concrete evidence of Arsenal's strength relative to competitors. Early-stage results from group matches and knockout performance will be the primary driver of probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Arsenal's recent domestic and European performance record compared to historical Champions League winners
- Squad depth and injury status of key players heading into the 2025-26 season
- Strength and consistency of competing teams expected in the tournament draw
- Head-to-head matchups and point differentials from group stage play once matches begin
- Market liquidity and trading volume suggest limited depth in pricing confidence for this specific outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uclw
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uclw

## License

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