# Japan unemployment rate in Mar 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 74% across 14 contracts — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ue
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.465Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-10

## Headline

- Probability: 74% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.1% | 51¢ | +29pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/china-unemployment-rate-in-may-2026-above-51-kalshi-kxue-chn26may-5.1 |
| Above 2.2% | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/russia-unemployment-rate-in-may-2026-above-22-kalshi-kxue-rus26may2-2.2 |
| Below 6.5% | 38¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/canada-unemployment-below-65-before-2027-below-65-kalshi-kxue-can27bel-6.5 |
| Above 31.2% | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-31-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-31.2 |
| Above 31.4% | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-31-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-31.4 |
| Above 31.6% | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-31-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-31.6 |
| Above 31.8% | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-31-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-31.8 |
| Above 32.0% | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-32-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-32.0 |
| Above 32.2% | 93¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-32-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-32.2 |
| Above 32.4% | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-32-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-32.4 |
| Above 32.6% | 92¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-32-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-32.6 |
| Above 32.8% | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-32-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-32.8 |
| Above 33.0% | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-33-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-33.0 |
| Above 33.2% | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/south-africa-unemployment-rate-in-q2-2026-above-33-kalshi-kxue-saf26q2-33.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 54 |
| 2026-05-24 | 57 |
| 2026-05-31 | 35 |
| 2026-06-06 | 51 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Above 5.1% −31pp 53→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Above 5.1% +29pp 22→51¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents a 62% chance that Japan's unemployment rate in March 2026 will meet a specific threshold, based on aggregated predictions from futures markets. Japan's labor market has historically remained tight, with unemployment rates typically ranging between 2.4% and 2.9% in recent years. The current assessment reflects expectations about labor force participation, seasonal employment patterns, and broader economic conditions affecting hiring in the service and manufacturing sectors. The key uncertainty centers on whether economic growth will sustain employer hiring demand through early 2026. Data releases from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, typically published in early April for the prior month, will provide the definitive reading. Market prices suggest traders are pricing in continued relative strength in employment levels.

### Key factors

- Japan's 2025 unemployment rate has remained below 3%, indicating a historically tight labor market that provides little room for upward movement
- Seasonal factors matter significantly—March employment data often reflects post-winter layoffs and spring hiring patterns in specific industries
- Economic growth momentum through late 2025 and early 2026 directly influences employer hiring decisions and labor force participation rates
- The specific unemployment threshold being priced (approximately 4.3-4.4%) represents a meaningful increase from baseline, requiring a notable deterioration in labor demand
- Official labor statistics from Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, released in early April, will provide the actual figure with no revision risk by that point

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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