# Will Strasbourg Alsace win the UEFA Conference League

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uecl
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.008Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-10

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 65¢ | +9pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-crystal-palace-win-the-uefa-conference-league-kalshi-kxuecl-26-cry |
| Vallecano | 33¢ | +9pp | $148 | kalshi | /markets/will-vallecano-win-the-uefa-conference-league-vall-kalshi-kxuecl-26-rvc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 62 |
| 2026-05-08 | 47 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Crystal Palace +9pp 55→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Vallecano +9pp 21→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Vallecano +5pp 16→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Crystal Palace −4pp 59→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Crystal Palace −3pp 62→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 31% probability indicates roughly 1-in-3 odds that Strasbourg Alsace will win the UEFA Conference League. The market is pricing in a moderate but meaningful chance for this French club to claim European football's third-tier trophy. The current probability likely reflects Strasbourg's historical performance in continental competitions, their domestic league standing, and their position in the tournament bracket. The primary driver of this probability is the strength of other competing teams and Strasbourg's own recent form and injury status. The most significant catalyst will be their upcoming knockout-stage matches—each victory or defeat will substantially shift the odds by eliminating or advancing them toward the final. The tournament's single-elimination format means results in the next 4-6 weeks will rapidly clarify the likelihood of their ultimate success.

### Key factors

- Strasbourg's current domestic league position and recent match results versus their Conference League opponents' strength
- The specific draw outcomes and remaining fixtures Strasbourg faces before a potential final
- Injury status of key players and squad depth available for midweek European matches
- Historical UEFA Conference League performance and track record of French clubs in the competition
- Dates of Strasbourg's upcoming knockout matches and performance metrics from those games

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uecl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uecl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.