# Strasbourg Alsace vs Vallecano

> Closed. Last odds frozen 21 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uecladvance
Updated: 2026-05-08T06:50:30.901Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-04

## Headline

- Probability: 63% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 96¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/crystal-palace-vs-shakhtar-crystal-palace-kalshi-kxuecladvance-26may07crysha-cry |
| Vallecano | 58¢ | +3pp | $570 | kalshi | /markets/strasbourg-alsace-vs-vallecano-vallecano-kalshi-kxuecladvance-26may07rcsrvc-rvc |
| Strasbourg Alsace | 36¢ | ±0 | $306 | kalshi | /markets/strasbourg-alsace-vs-vallecano-strasbourg-alsace-kalshi-kxuecladvance-26may07rcsrvc-rcs |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 62 |
| 2026-05-07 | 47 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Vallecano +3pp 55→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the market's assessment that Strasbourg Alsace has a 63% chance of winning against Vallecano in an upcoming match. The elevated probability likely reflects Strasbourg's recent form, home advantage, or historical head-to-head record against Vallecano. The key factors driving this level are team performance trends, injury status of key players, and any recent managerial or squad changes. The match result will directly resolve this contract when the game concludes. Factors that could shift the probability include lineup announcements, weather conditions at kickoff, or late-breaking news about player availability. The low trading volume across contracts suggests limited recent market activity, which may mean the current prices haven't adjusted to the most recent developments.

### Key factors

- Strasbourg's current league position and recent match results (wins/losses/draws in last 5-10 games)
- Vallecano's away record and performance against comparable opponents this season
- Availability of key players for both teams, including confirmed injuries or suspensions
- Historical head-to-head record between the two clubs
- Home/away performance differential and venue factors that favor one team

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/uecladvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=uecladvance

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.